jakiro
Author: 099. ETH, encrypted KOL; Translation: Bit Chain Vision Xiaozou
The following is the popular token performance of DEXSCREENer’s top 30 from July 10 to July 11.The snapshot time is about 00:30 GMT time.
Below I will explain in the easier understanding of language and charts.This is the original data I organized:
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The simple average of all 30 popular coins is -18%.If you allocate $ 1,000 to all tokens, then you will eventually leave $ 821.34.
Simple conclusion is: If you believe that the income is randomly distributed, or that you choose the winner’s vision is not stronger than the randomness, then you may draw such a conclusion: after buying and holding for 24 hours, you will suffer that you will definitely suffer certainlyloss.
Market value& lt; 10USD 10 (US dollars (+8% d/d, Positive value)
Your expected return is 8%.You have a 33%chance to suffer more than 80%of the losses, and the chance of choosing a positive income tokens is only 17%.
Market value10Ten thousand-100USD 10 (US dollars (-30% d/d.
Your expected return is -30%.You have a 41%chance to lose more than 80%.You choose a 24 -hour positive income tokens to only 17%.
Market value100Ten thousand-1000USD 10 (US dollars (-30% d/d.
Your expected return is also -30%.You have a 33%chance of losing more than 80%, and only 17%have a chance to choose a positive income token.
Market value& gt; 1000USD 10 (US dollars (-2% d/d.
Your expected return is -2%.This scale of tokens usually does not fall, but only 29%of the tokens have appeared positive income in the past 24 hours.
After 24 hours of snapshot, only 30%of the tokens are still ranked in the popular token ranking.It is very likely that a popular currency will disappear from the spotlight and lose attention (transaction volume).The depreciation speed is fast, especially when the market value of contemporary currency is less than $ 1 million.Only one tokens with a market value of less than $ 1 million still have not dropped the list, and this is due to its status as a MOONSHOT issue tokens.
Only three tokens can maintain heat in less than a week.
Enlightenment: The new token is regarded as an option with a fast time value attenuation (time is not your friend, please bet quickly).Different from treating the long -term Lindi hot coins, every day spent on the popular list will inspire more confidence.
If you choose a token randomly from the popular list, then you have 30%chance to suffer more than 80%of the loss within 24 hours.
Instead, your dream of selling is 2 times, 3 times or greater benefits.You should have 7%of the opportunity to double your income, or randomly bet on a token and hold a 24 -hour earning higher return.
60%of the popular lists have paid advertisements.Is this related to the positive performance of these tokens?It has nothing to do with it.
The average returns within 24 hours of the media paid by the media on DEXSCREENER are -50%.
Revelation: If someone pays cash to ensure that I see the tokens, then if I am stupid to notice, they can attack me.
Only 11%of the tokens paid for advertising during the snapshot were still on the hot list one day later.So keeping heat has nothing to do with advertising.
in conclusion:
-The random choice of a coin is a negative value strategy.
-The trial to randomly select the tokens within a small range of time is also-EV strategy. You just add more random trials to your betting sample … Considering the high probability of plunge (80%of the decline), ifYou did not understand the specific situation of tokens before you randomly bet on the currency. You may not only fall into a blossoming face … because stop loss is basically unrealistic for small market value tokens.
-By the tokens with a market value of only over 10 million US dollars, you can greatly reduce the chance of tokens.However, it should be noted that the tokens must be issued for at least 48 hours.I have seen a high decline in the honeypot tokens before, although there is no such token in the snapshot in this article.In addition, if you don’t know a coin, at least you must ensure that liquidity is locked at least 5% LP/FDV.
-If you see a kind of tokens are advertising … Running … unless you know this tokens are special.Their performance is often bad.
-Ather the large number of fluctuations attract you to enter the market … After 24 hours a random snapshot, the price of those small market value tokens is 70%lower than its historical high value.You are unlikely to grab the row.
-Dian currency will quickly withdraw from the popular list.Only 10%of the popular currency issued for less than a week will be maintained on the popular list for 24 hours, and they will soon drop the list
-S, finding tokens from the DexScreener’s popular list is a bad strategy, which is easily deceived by false transactions or advertising.So, even if you feel bored or seduced, you must be a little farther away.
-You better dig deeper to the network that social media and you trust, or just avoid this game, unless you regard investment as entertainment.The above are some data, which can be used to supplement the information you think.Please invest cautiously.
