jakiro
Author: Cryptohowe.eth Source: X,@Weihaoming
This article mainly describes my personal thinking on the BTC ecology and the judgment of the future development of the ecology.I’m optimistic about the reason for the BTC ecology and what kind of project is a high -quality project in my eyes
I have told what is “correct non -consensus” before. This article can also be regarded as a non -consensus I personally think.However, it should be noted that the correct non -consensus is not based on the current market conditions and development. This article is more based on existing situations and data, so readers need to realize this difference in advance
Disclaimer: This article has a strong personal subjective consciousness. There is no investment advice, only communication and sharing.At the same time, this article is based on personal existing cognition and existing data.
I think about the three points of the BTC ecology
BTC ecology is unique
As the pioneer of the Crypto world, BTC’s technical characteristics and ecological composition are unique.From a technical point of view, BTC uses the complete script language of Turing, so it cannot support many complex computing, which leads to scarcity and slow progress in the ecology.At the same time, the consensus of BTC is very Maxi style. The figure below is the holding time of the holder of the BTC holder. Among them, we can divide it into the following four parts:
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Hold more than 10 years (16.6%): Most of them are permanently lost BTC
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Hold 3 year -10 years (30.4%): a small part is the permanent lost BTC, and the remaining part is the medium and long line traders, and partly is firmly holding the Bitcoin Maxi who does not buy and sell
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Hold 1 year -3 year (19.3%): Mid -line trader
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Holding below 1 year (34.6%): short -term traders
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Data source: https://studio.glassNode.com/metrics? A = BTCM = SUPPLY.HODLWAVES
This can be seen,The BTC that truly provides liquidity in the entire BTC ecological market accounts for only about 35% of the current token.This is the biggest difference from other ecology.And because of the important factor of Bitcoin Maxi, everyone regards BTC as a long -term holding asset of “digital gold”. Therefore, for them, only BTC is their belief.
BTC is often because it is difficult to use, because it is expensive, it is valuable
BTC now has such a high value to a large degree from its consensus valueThis is even more so for Bitcoin Maxi. At least we rarely hear Ethereum Maxi or Solana Maxi.Looking back at the entire development history of Bitcoin, we can find that it has not received much attention in the first few years, and the price has always been extremely gentle. It was not until 2013 that a wave of rising waves gradually attracted more and moreUsers have entered, and in the past five years, those OGs who have been presented to the presence have become more and more firm, becoming the Bitcoin Maxi in everyone’s mouth.
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Data source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/bitcoin-price-live/
With the birth of Ethereum in 2015, after bringing the characteristics of a smart contract, the characteristic of the market, everyone gradually realized the limitations of Bitcoin, and BTC gradually became everyone’s hedging assets. As mentioned above, nearly 65%The BTC has been unmoved.
But I personally think,The reason why BTC can maintain the current high value is that in addition to its first Crypto asset, the entire Bitcoin main network is “expensive and difficult to use”This refers to the cost of transaction GAS on Bitcoin than other networks, lower trading throughput, and the development and construction of ecological facilities are extremely slow.But sometimes it is because of these “problems” that users can regard them as treasures and do not operate easily. This is like buying things. One way is to pay with simple and portable banknotes.Cut a small piece of payment on the complete gold, and its portableness and price are like the relationship between the current BTC and other networks.
What problems should BTC ecosystem be solved first
The current BTC ecology can be roughly divided into two factions: native technology factions and user -oriented factionsThe native technology faction mainly refers to digging its potential on the basis of Bitcoin’s unique UTXO and script language, and trying to develop project development; the user -oriented mainly refers to that the project party uses some of the existing needs of the market users, using the use of the current needs of the market, and uses some of the existing needs of market users.At present, the existing mature conditions are quickly developed to create a new product to serve market users.
And I personally think,The BTC ecology should first create an emerging agreement/project through the improvement and expansion of native technology to revitalize the BTC fund utilization rate.For each round of cycles, technological innovation is bound to be an indispensable part. For the BTC ecology, technological innovation should be more reflected in continuously breaking the original limitations of its original.therefore,Individuals have always considered lazy behaviors to move the gameplay of Ethereum into the BTC ecosystem, and the ceiling is low.In essence, this approach is to quickly build projects and go online by using mature technology communities on Ethereum, rich developer teams, and many years of ecological experience. However, after the launch, its technological innovation ability will become quite limited.And it is impossible to attract the above -mentioned Bitcoin Maxi group of people and other new market users who only believe in BTC.
After talking about technological innovation, then talk about another core factor -liquidity.The richness and scarce of liquidity determine the bull market and bear market. Therefore, how to improve liquidity is an important direction in the BTC ecosystem.Then there are two ways to improve liquidity: the circulation of funds in the activation field and attracting new off -site funds to enter the market.If the funds on the court are well understood, how to increase everyone’s willingness to transaction, especially in the BTC ecosystem, there are still about 65% of BTCs that have long -term holding and not trading. So how to attract them to participate in some ways/means.It is a question that we need to think about; and off -site funds refer to the new funds entering the ecology. The typical case is the BTC ETF passed in the first half of this year, which has driven a large number of traditional users to enter the market and bring the BTC ecology.A considerable amount of liquidity.However, there are some problems with these liquidity, that is, the use of funds is not high. The main reason is that many traditional users’ understanding of the encrypted world only stays on BTC. There are very few infrastructure such as wallets and public chains.Many times are similar to Bitcoin Maxi. Buy BTC for a long time, not high -frequency transactions.
Therefore, how to attract new funds to enter and revitalize the use of new and old funds will be something that needs to be solved by the BTC ecology.
How to find a good BTC ecological target
Combined with the three views mentioned earlier,Personally, the principle of screening the subject of BTC ecology is mainly the following four pointsThese four points are not independent of each other. It is better if it can be combined with each other:
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Native technological innovation
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Inherit the safety of Bitcoin’s main network
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Be able to empower BTC itself
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Reduce the threshold of users
The original technological innovation has been described before, so I won’t repeat it too much here.Inheriting the security of Bitcoin’s main network and being able to empower the BTC itself is mainly because in the current entire ecology, everyone believes in BTC, consensus is BTC, not derivatives other than BTC., Make your consensus stronger, this is what you need to do at present.And this approach is also in line with the concept of Bitcoin Maxi. It can not only better attract them to participate in the market, but also allow new market users to have more willingness to participate.The essence of reducing the threshold of users is to improve the liquidity of ecology.
Just like Babylon’s approach, through native technological innovation, such as Bitcoin timestamp, allows users to obtain additional benefits when BTC is still retained in their own hands.There are more asset security risks and can get additional benefits.Therefore, for market users, it will be a very attractive project.
