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Jessy, Bitchain Vision Realm
On June 28th, Beijing time, VANECK launched Vaneck Solana Trust and submitted Solana spot ETF application to SEC.
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Interestingly, this time apply for spot ETF SOL,Previously, there was no its futures ETF approved and launched.Is the release of the message submitted by the Solana spot ETF this time, is it just a hype?
Futures ETF is not launched, and it is considered a securities
The VANECK submitted to the SOLANA spot ETF to the United States SEC is one of the publishers of the BTC and ETH spot ETF approved by the United States before.Summarizing the VANECK digital asset research supervisor’s speech on X can be found that VANECK’s reason for the Solana spot ETF is roughly optimistic about Solana’s technology, and he also sees that it is widely used as digital commodities and a large number of customers.
According to the application document, VanEck Solana Trust is expected to be listed and traded on the CBOE BZX Exchange Co., Ltd., and the specific notice needs to be issued.
An interesting thing is that VANECK has not issued a card this time, and does not apply for SOL futures to apply for spot ETF directly, which may affect the approval process of the SEC.You can also see from this, in factThe pass of Solana spot ETF has great uncertainty.Another uncertainty is that SEC has clearly stated in the lawsuit that SOL is an unregistered securities.
Other factors that affect the SOLANA spot judgment are insufficient decentralization.The degree of decentralization of Solana is not as good as Bitcoin and Ethereum, especially FTX previously held a large number of Solana.And its market value coin starts with Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the gap is still very large, which also indicates that its liquidity is poor.
From this point of view, is VANECK mentioning Solana’s spot ETF to SEC this time, is it just a hype?In fact, not.
Organize users to support, the US election may make the situation reverse
The first is that Solana, as the dark horse in this round of bull market, has attracted much attention and has received the capital of Wall Street.And some analysts pointed out that Solana’s high throughput, low transaction costs and security characteristics have enabled it to become the potential target of ETF.
And why is it solana instead of other currencies?Earlier, LTC, BCH and DOGE were both strong candidates who shocked the next wave of spot ETFs.The reason is very simple. Generally, the general virtual currency spot ETF must be taken before the approval of ETF: such a process:The US CFTC Supervision Institute first goes to the currency futures, and then the futures ETF will be available.
At present, after the CFTC is submitted to the information, the compliant futures have except for BTC and ETH, which are LTC, BCH, and Doge, but the real transactions of these three coins are not on CME, but on the derivative exchanges under Coinbase.The above three tokens are not identified as securities by the US SEC, so the industry feels that the next three coins of the spot ETF may be passed.
However, we seem to only notice the compliance of the process, but we do not realize the important role played by capital on spot ETFs.
Robbie Mitchnick, the person in charge of Berlaid Digital Assets, has clearly stated that the needs of institutional customers determine that Berlaide promotes cryptocurrency products, that is,Institutions customers favor a certain generation of currency, and these fund companies will vigorously promote the spot ETF of this generation of currencies.
We analyze the cryptocurrency -related ETN (index linkage securities) issued by VANECK found that Solana ETN is the largest ETN in addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum user demand (asset management scale).So this is very good to understand why other fund companies including VANECK will vigorously promote Solana’s spot ETF instead of those tokens that look more correct in the process.
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Although the launch of Solana spot ETF is currently facing great uncertainty, but if the US government leadership changes, especially under the leadership of SEC that supports cryptocurrencies, the Solana spot ETF has the opportunity to be approved.The US election is really affecting the encryption market.
And after the Solana spot ETF passes, how does the price of SOL change?The GSR issued report evaluation stated that if the amount of funds flow in Sorana’s spot ETF accounted for Bitcoin’s inflows in the bear market, benchmarks and ideal conditions, the proportion of Bitcoin inflows is 2%, 5%, and 14%, respectively, and the market value of Solana has an average of in the past year in the past year average.After 4%of the market value of bitcoin, SOL may increase by 1.4 times in the case of a bear market. Under the benchmark, it will increase by 3.4 times, and an ideal increase will increase by 8.9 times.
Next year, perhaps the new leadership team in the SEC, the Sorana spot ETF will be launched?But everything is unknown.
