jakiro
Author: Qin Jin, carbon chain value
There are two narratives in the encryption market.First, Bitcoin.The second is Ethereum, and Ethereum may explode in 2024.
2024 is the 15th year of Satoshi Nakamoto’s founding Bitcoin, and it is also a key year for Bitcoin.Bitcoin spot ETF came out.The fourth halving cycle is approaching.The Federal Reserve ’s interest cutting expectations are increasingly obvious, and the impact of the USA election on the Bitcoin market.These historic events will affect the future trend of the encryption market to some extent.I think that in the next 1-2 years, various discussion narrative contexts will not leave the keywords of Bitcoin, and this narrative context will only increase without decrease.
Similarly, 2024 is the 11th year of V God founded Ethereum.It is also a critical year of Ethereum.The bull market cycle.Cancun upgrade.And the upcoming Ethereum ETF.These events also have a profound impact on the encryption market.As the second overcoming of the encryption market, it never lacks topicality.After Bitcoin, will the most concerned encryption ETF be ushered in this year?
Simply write a few words of Ethereum ETF.In the encryption market,What is the biggest role of ETF?I think there are three points, first of all, compliance.Followed by capital inflows.Finally, the lap.
Strictly speaking, the compliance listing of Bitcoin ETF is very successful.No matter which one of the above three, it has achieved the extreme.According to the latest data of BitMex Research, on February 16, the spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow funds reached US $ 323.9 million.Following the latest capital inflows, Bitcoin ETF has currently recorded nearly $ 5 billion in net inflow.This means that since the launch of Bitcoin ETF, more than 100,000 BTCs have been transferred to the spot Bitcoin ETF.
According to the Cryptoquant report, in the past two weeks, more than 75%of new Bitcoin investments come from Bitcoin spot ETF, and investment from these ETFs has increased to 2%of Bitcoin’s historical investment in just one month.Bitcoin reached $ 52,000 on February 14, a new high in the past two years.With that, the market value also exceeded $ 1 trillion.
So if the future trend of Ethereum ETF is speculated according to the logic of the Bitcoin ETF listing, will it be performed on the same drama as the Bitcoin ETF?The latest prediction given by Standard Chartered Bank is to rise to $ 4,000 before May 23.
Today, ARK 21Share and VANECK submitted the revised file to the US SEC on the Ethereum spot ETF, respectively.According to Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, ARK 21Share submits a new 19B-4 file and a series of new analysis in the Ethereum spot ETF.Another Bloomberg analyst, James Seyffart, said that VANECK submitted a revised version of the S-1A file for its spot Ethereum ETF.
In addition to the ARK 21Share and VANECK, it also includes Franklin, Dunpon, Berlaide, and gray. They have all submitted the Ethereum ETF application documents to the US SEC.As of now, the probability of Ethereum ETF approved by Ethereum Etf Etfang Etf in May in May, including Standard Chartered Bank, JP Morgan Chase and Bloomberg.
If they are approved, what fundamental changes will it bring to the encryption market and the Ethereum market?The following articles from Zerohedge about Ethereum ETF explained what the structural logic of Ethereum ETF was approved.And the price prediction of Ethereum after approval.For readers and friends for reference:
Author: Tyler Durden
Standard Chartered Bank: After Ethereum ETF is approved, ETH will reach 4,000 US dollars in May
One month ago, Standard Chartered Bank predicted that as Bitcoin ETF was approved, Bitcoin would eventually rise to $ 200,000.Since then, Standard Chartered Bank has shifted its attention to Ethereum and the inevitable Ethereum ETF approval. Although Standard Chartered Bank did not make similar exaggerated predictions, it believes that ETH will rise to $ 4,000 before May 23. It is expected that Ethereum will then Ethereum.ETF will be approved.By the way, we agree with this view.
How do they get there?As the Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick wrote, the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10.These approval processes and the price trend of Bitcoin before and after and and later have provided experience in the process of Ethereum ETF application process.
According to Kendrick, the dominant strategy of the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s application for Ethereum ETF is the process of copying Bitcoin.This part reflects the structural similarity between the two.In the case where Ripple was sued in June 2023, the US Securities and Exchange Commission did not include ETH into the 67 tokens they claimed to be “securities”.In addition, ETH, like BTC, is a futures contract listed on the Chicago Business Exchange (CME) and regulated.
Therefore, the bank is expected to be approved by ETH US spot ETF to be approved on May 23. This is also the last batch of ETFs that are being reviewed, which is equivalent to the approval date of Bitcoin ETF on January 10.If the performance of ETH is similar to the BTC price performance before the Bitcoin ETF is approved, Kendrick is expected to be as high as $ 4,000 by that.
To be sure, to allow ETH prices to follow the same price mode as BTC, Standard Chartered Bank lists three conditions that need to be met:
First of all, the possibility of the current market for the date of approval on May 23 must be very low, just like the situation of the Bitcoin ETF.This seems to be true.Some media reports show that commentators have different views on approval.The expected expectations are concentrated on such a view, that is, the US Securities and Exchange Commission defines ETH as securities rather than commodities-this is the core argument of the Ripple incident in 2023. According to market reviews, we believe that the approval expectations are relatively low., May be less than 50%.
Secondly, the probability of the market speculation must be wrong.We also think that the situation is indeed the case.Although Gary Gensler, chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, did say in the Ripple Corporation’s lawsuit in the US Securities and Exchange Commission in June 2023: “Everything except Bitcoin may be securities.”The trading committee was identified as the 67 tokens of the securities at the time.It is also worth noting that the US Securities and Exchange Commission did not win the case in the case. When Ripple was sold to institutional customers, it was ruled to be securities, but it was not ruled to be securities when purchasing the exchange.In addition, SEC also defeated GrayScale’s case of Bitcoin ETF.GrayScale also has an Ethereum trust fund, hoping to transform it into ETF, so if the application is rejected, GrayScale will likely appeal again.Both BTC and ETH are both CME listing and regulatory futures contracts. We believe that the US Securities and Exchange Commission has no reason for ETH’s views on ETH.
Third, several spot Ethereum ETFs need to be approved on May 23.In other words, the US Securities and Exchange Commission needs to follow the same process as the Bitcoin ETF approval.We think this possibility is very high.During the approval of Bitcoin ETF, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has continued to postpone decisions and publicly stated that it will not be approved immediately before approval.On January 24, the US Securities and Exchange Commission postponed the approval of the two Ethereum ETFs (Palegiane and Fidelity), and postponed the approval of the third Ethereum ETF (GrayScale) on January 25, and Gensler claimed to be BTCApproval is one -time.In fact, we believe that the US Securities and Exchange Commission is not only possible to adopt similar approach to Ethereum ETF, but also the best impact on ETH prices, because this will reduce market expectations-as the probability of approval is increased, prices are upward, and prices are upward.Space will maximize.
From the perspective of ETF approval, Standard Chartered Bank believes that ETH is not easy to be sold after the approval of BTC:
The price of BTC fell from $ 49,000 on January 11 to a low of $ 38,500 on January 23.This is because before the ETF was approved, the share of the Ethereum Trust Fund in the overall market value of ETH was less than the Gray Bitcoin Trust Fund (GBTC).The relative market value of ETH held by FTX compared to BTC, as well as related to selling pressure, and even smaller.
At the same time, although GBTC’s sales in recent weeks ($ 4.9 billion) exceeded our expectations-reviewing our report, the mandatory liquidation of FTX and its associated entities is one of the main reasons for Bitcoin in the past month-However, the selling pressure on the recent trading days has been relieved.
Like us, Kendrick also believes that the GBTC sales period is over (even sporadic large -scale futures liquidation continues).The analyst also expects other new Bitcoin ETFs to continue to flow in, so that the price of BTC prices will regain the trend.
Therefore, when the approval date is expected to be approved on May 23, we expect ETH prices to follow or win BTC’s upward trend during comparable periods.
Finally, in addition to the results of the ETF process, there is also a fundamental reason for us to be optimistic about ETH’s pricing.Standard Chartered Bank reminds us that “Cancun upgrade” is imminent and will test on the Sepolia and Holesky test networks on January 30 and February 7, respectively.This will enable it to be launched on the main network of Ethereum at the end of February or early March.
This upgrade will mainly use Proto-Danksharding. This process will greatly reduce the trading costs of Layer 2 (such as Arbitrum and Optimism), making it consistent with the Layer 1 public chain such as Solana.It will also slow the pledge speed of ETH, so according to the new fastest speed, theoretically, it will not be able to achieve 100%pledge until the end of 2028 instead of the end of 2024 before upgrading.Overall, this upgrade should be able to get more value in the ETH ecosystem, because the lower Layer 2 fee makes ETH more competitive, and the slower pledge speed should be able to maintain a higher time.Pickling reward.These two points are beneficial to ETH prices.
