jakiro
Author: Dr. Y.Ting, encrypted observer source: x,@bitdot_eth
Will there be a cottage season in this round of bull market? My idea may be different from most people. I think there is no such thing as a cottage season. I will talk about my point from the macro and micro level.Before that, in order to better understand, I will share with you some of the superficial cognition of the macroeconomic cycle. If you think the macro economy is very false, it is not helpful to make money in the currency circle.EssenceThe following is a thread …
Macro
We have gone through a complete round of Kangbo cycle every 50-60 years, from back to prosperity, from prosperity to recession, from recession to depression, and finally transition from depression to the next round of the cycle, so reciprocating.Each technological innovation that changes human destiny has promoted the birth and development of a new cycle.
We are currently in the depression stage of the Fifth Round Kangbo cycle, because technological innovation that promotes this round of cycle has been stagnant (the technological innovation of this round of cycle is the Internet, see the web2 currently mourning, and then compare the web2 creation 10 years ago 10 years ago.Rich effect, if you are more familiar with web2, you will definitely feel how big this gap is.
The global economy has stagnated; more importantly, in order to cope with the financial crisis that occurred in the previous decline (this round is the financial crisis in 2008), governments of various countries have to start the crazy money printing model (the new crown has severely exacerbated this action). In the short term, in the short termSave the economy, but also created the timing bomb of inflation.In order to remove this bomb, governments of various countries have to turn their locks in turn.
These two things have created a depression stage together.The core feature of the depression stage is stagflation. For ordinary people, stagflation is much more terrible than inflation or shrinking (you can ask your friends who have been engaged in the non -web3 industry in the past few years).In one sentence, Kang Bo’s depression is summarized: what you do to lose money, and the cost is high. Whether it is a boss or a worker, no one is.
It is certain that many people will be curious. What does this have to do with the currency circle?In fact, the relationship is great,From the 19 -year currency circle, it has been gradually accepted by the traditional world. To the recent spot ETF passed, if you have a sensitive perception of the market, you will find that the dealer’s trading method was very different from 19 years ago.Old money has gradually entered the currency circle and replaced the indigenous dealer in the original currency circle.
The old money and the economy are deeply involved. If there is no money in the entire traditional financial market, the currency circle will definitely be depleted.Because of the high interest rate, the hot money will cause hot money from the risk market to the risk -free bond market. The currency circle is the risk market in the risk market. The reason for the two -year PVP of the currency circle is here.
So, when will Kangbo’s depression end?We can find the law from history:When the interest rate hikes cannot be added, the economy is on the verge of collapse, and the unemployment rate has soared, the depression period will end.Many people expect that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut will soon come, and it is fantasizing that Bitcoin will not rise to $ 200,000 when you wait for interest rate cuts?
But I think this view is too optimistic. It is not that I do not think that the Bitcoin will be DA MOON, but it is likely that the interest rate cut is likely not to be imagined. At present, the key indicator of the judgment of the US unemployment rate is still closeIn the historical low (see the figure below), it is simply not to look at the high interest rate. Everyone has a taste of life. Then the Fed has more confidence to further control inflation.
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Real interest rate cuts are forced, because the economy can’t hold it, there is no way to cut interest ratesIt is quite resistant to the economy now, so I estimate that the era of high interest rates in this round of high interest rates is likely to last long. The current interest rate is almost the same as before the financial crisis in 2008 (see the figure below), and the more high interest rates last more.The more high, the more likely to defeat the global economy at a certain moment. Crypto has incorporated traditional finance and cannot be alone.
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Back to the currency circle to look at this problem. As long as the high interest rate continues, the hot money in the market will only get less and less. Without new funds to enter the market, you can only maintain the PVP status.Difficult to flow into higher risk cottage coins.
Micro -level
Each round of bull markets in the past is probably in accordance with this rule:Innovative technology starts the new narrative-& gt; early wealth effect-& gt; the first wave (foam wave)-& gt; technology is far lower than the expected narrative collapse-& gt;Some projects are zero, but at the same time, they also run out several leading leaders of value-& gt; second waves (wave of value).
So it may be a bit abstract, let’s give two examples:
Eth:
ETH opens the programmable era of blockchain, which is equivalent to making the blockchain from Nokia to a smartphone. This is a disruptive innovative technology. At the same time, the ERC20 standard allows everyone to issue assets. ICO brings an early wealth effect.Various public chain layers are endless. In 17 years, the bull market is the first wave of bubbles, and then everyone finds that the air coins are really just air.
The market’s expectations for programmable blockchains are too high. The reality is that it can only make air coins. The narrative collapse of the bear market for 18 years. The market oversold at the end of 18 years.The leading ETH, which includes the second wave of programmable blockchain, only recognize the valuable public chain.
DEFI:
Uniswap creates a subversive AMM mechanism that makes it possible to liquidate the chain. This is the foundation of decentralized finance (if the chain cannot be liquidated, the borrowing on the chain cannot be mentioned), from DEX to DEFI, 19 years DEFI Summer, wealth wealth, wealth, wealth, wealth, wealth, wealth, wealth, wealth, wealthThe effect of pushing the bubble brought the first wave-& gt; then the zoo narrative collapse-& gt; most of the DEFI projects of the year after the big waves were zero, and a small number of valuable leading DEFI and DEX continued to this day.
From the perspective of leek, the first wave is the most likely to stimulate, and you don’t need to understand anything. As long as you shuttle the narrative track and buy anything, you will get rich; the difficulty of making money in the second wave has increased.People can make money, not only to shuttle the track, but also shuttle with the faucet.
From the perspective of the project, the first wave is also the easiest to get rich. PPT+FORK valuation is not a dream. What needs to be done is not to do things.The business model of the track has self -made blood, and the PVP of the competitive product can only survive, and survive is a monopoly lying and earning.
In this rule, the first wave of each new narrative is driven by bubbles. From the small -scale wealth effect in the circle to the large -scale wealth effect in the circle, the successful attraction of the new leek outside the circle is the new.The funds promoted the main rise of the bull market, and eventually because the new funds were exhausted, the bull market collapsed.
So, come back to see this wave of bull market now, as if it is not a wealth effect by a certain innovative technology, which attracts the script of the new leek entry to promote the main rise of the bull market.ETF really allows a large amount of old money and new leeks to enter the venue, but the key to the problem is that ETF can only buy $ BTC and make money on $ BTC. They can only be cash out into the dollar and cannot continue to invest in cottage coins.
(Just like you buy the Shanghai -Shenzhen 300 Index Fund, your money fund will only help you buy those 300 stocks. You want to buy the 301 stocks through this fund.)(The mainstream coin of Gouzhuang, the funds overflowing the cottage coins after making money, and the return of funds after making money.) It is essentially different, so we saw some very strange phenomena this time:
a) BTC has soared, the cottage coins are not followed, and it is constantly being blood -sucking by BTCb) It feels that the market should be hot, but it seems that the enthusiasm of leek is not as high as the previous bull market. Most people have not made money. There is no large -scale wealth effect of the past bull market.c) The current contract is over -the -illegal inch (see the figure below), indicating that the market is extremely hot, and the perception of leek is in sharp contrast to the perception of leek.
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Summarize
Based on macro reasons, the total number of hot money for global investable risk assets must be reduced. On this basis, with a micro -reasons, I think this round of bull market is probably the BTC bull market.Several rounds of bull markets are small, and the cottage is still mainly PVP on the market.Before the interest rate cut cycle came, the real wealth -making big bull market was difficult to come.
