jakiro
Source: Blockchain
2024 is a year of hope for the encryption market. All people’s attention focuses on those new tracks worthy of attention in the encryption field, as well as head institutions.Each institution has announced its own research report at the beginning of the year. From a professional and detailed perspective, 2024 is very valuable.
The vernacular blockchain checked 23 head institutions research reports (including MESSARI, A16Z, Coinbase, MT Capital, etc.), trying to summarize and find the “institutional consensus” to improve the certainty. The sorting is as follows:
01The top ten tracks that are generally optimistic
1) Bitcoin ecological revival
After the ORDINALS (a digital content encoding method based on Bitcoin) in December 2022, it drives the inscription and Bitcoin ecological boom.In 2023, Bitcoin ecology has developed strongly, and the dominant position of Bitcoin (the proportion of Bitcoin accounts for the market value of cryptocurrencies) has increased from 38% in January to about 50% in December, making it the most attention to the ecosystem of 2024 in 2024, the most concerned ecosystem in 2024one.
The forecast of the organization is basically optimistic about the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem this year:
American mainstream encryption index fund management companyBitwiseThe predicted that the transaction price of Bitcoin will exceed $ 80,000 in 2024;
CoinbaseIt is believed that at least in the first half of 2024, the main focus of institutional investment will continue to be concentrated on Bitcoin, because the passage of ETF will give traditional investors a strong demand for entering the market.
The predictions of other institutions are also optimistic, the main reason is:
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the spot Bitcoin ETF, and the Bitcoin halving event in April in the next big event is coming.
The Bitcoin ecology will be upgraded in infrastructure and an increase in programming functions, including the development of various protocols such as basic protocols (such as Ordinals), and the second and other scalable layers (such as Stacks and RootStock).
2) The development of Ethereum L2
In addition to the Bitcoin ecosystem, Ethereum is the pioneer of smart contracts, and the development of Ethereum Layer2 is also the highlight of the consistent optimism of each institution in 2024. Especially with Vitalik’s release of Ethereum 2024 route map, Kankun’s upgrade is approaching the approaching of Kankun upgrades., ARB, OP, etc. Ethereum Layer2 project tokens have recently skyrocketed.
The competition in the public chain ecology has always been fierce. In 2023, the ecosystem of public chain such as Solana and avalanches developed rapidly, and the momentum was even over Ethereum.But Ethereum as a leader also started to work,Most of the agencies predict that with the completion of the Cankun upgrade, the GAS cost will further decrease significantly, which can drive Ethereum Layer2 ecology in 2024.Like Bitwise, the major upgrade of the Ethereum blockchain will make the average transaction cost of less than $ 0.01, which can lay the foundation for more mainstream uses.
If the upgrade is successfully achieved, some leading projects of Ethereum Layer2 (such as Optimism, Arbitrum, Base, etc.) can compete with other Layer1 public chains in performance.
In addition, according to Vitalik’s idea, in the long run, the direction of zero -knowledge proof is the future of Ethereum Layer2. The two Layer2 projects of ZKSYNC and Starkware are also optimistic.
3) The development of Solana ecology
In the past 2023, the ecological performance of the Solana public chain is good. Whether it is technical precipitation or community, it has laid a solid foundation for the long -term development of the Solana ecosystem, and the outbreak of the Solana ecosystem has also attracted a large number of users and funds.
Each institution predicts that in 2024, more projects will be selected or migrated to the Solana public chain, and the Solana ecology will continue to explode.Because, whether it is TPS, GAS, or community users, Solana is more resistant.
In 2024, the marketing agencies’ expectations for Solana are focused on the following aspects:
Solana’s technical upgrade, such as developing light clients through Tinydancer, allows verification to complete the verification work at a lower cost and achieve a higher degree of decentralization;
Solana’s performance improvement, including improving throughput and performance, improving user experience, deploying new Token standards, etc., which enhances its stability;
The release of new products, increased liquidity on the chain, and the expansion of developer tools have promoted the prosperity of the Solana DEPIN ecosystem.
4) DEPIN (Decentralized Public Internet Network)
DEPIN, that is, decentralized physical infrastructure network, is a new method for building and maintenance infrastructure in the real world. Its goal is to construct decentralized networks in industries such as telecommunications, energy, mobile communication and storage.In 2023, there were more than 650 DEPINS with a market value of more than 20 billion US dollars and an annual revenue of more than 150 million US dollars.
List of Depin’s development in 2023
In 2024, cryptocurrency data platformCoinmarketcapDEPIN has been listed as an independent classification, reflecting the high attention of the encryption market for this field.
The fields covered by DEPIN are very broad, including server networks, wireless networks, sensing networks, and energy networks. At present, each predictive DEPIN track has huge growth potential.For example, according to MESSARI forecast of encrypted research institutions, the overall industry size of DEPIN is currently about 2.2 trillion US dollars, and it is expected to increase to US $ 3.5 trillion by 2028.MESSARI also pays special attention to the following segmented DEPIN sub -track: cloud storage market, decentralized database, decentralized wireless network, and AIEssence
However, while prediction, each institution also believes that the maturity of DEPIN also requires the long -term investment and operation development of the market, institutions and developers in order to gradually penetrate into people’s lives and applications.Walk in parallel, and then replace.
5) The combination of AI and blockchain
The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) in 2023 also promoted the development of AI+ Web3 services.In early January 2024, the market value of AI related Token reached US $ 7.04 billion.Given the increasing popularity of artificial intelligence, most predictions are optimistic about using AI as the core function to enhance the appeal of encrypted platforms based on blockchain.
The current tracks that are more optimistic about each institution are:
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AI’s direct application in the field of encryption:The combination of trading robots, automatic payment and arbitrage robot and blockchain.Combining scenarios include AI Agent to pay with encrypted infrastructure, smart contract security dispatch AI models, token reward personal fine -tuning models, and collect valuable data.MESSARI believes that the progress of AI will increase the demand for cryptocurrency solutions.
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Innovative application of AI and encryption technology:Here AI is used to improve the user experience and efficiency of Web3, and more blockchain technology is used as a guardrail and transparent layer for AI.For example, we see research and new use cases about zero -knowledge and machine learning (ZKML), allowing users to use ERC 6551 to train AI proxy games, etc.
Bankless analyst, Jack Inabinet, believes, Encrypted + artificial intelligence may be an explosive combination.Although the early activities were mainly worthless projects to use speculation, the prospects were still huge.Encrypted company DWFIt is believed that guiding social cognition and its limitations in centralized AI has great development potential in the decentralization AI in 2024, and can lead the future of AI through Web3.
6) The outbreak of gamefi, the development of chain tour
The chain tours of 2021 and 2022 are blooming, from “Play to Earn” to “X to Earn”, and running out of Axie, Stepn and other popular projects. In comparison, the chain tour in 2023 is relatively bleak.However, with the improvement of infrastructure, various institutions are still optimistic about the future development of Chain Tour.
After all, from the perspective of the traditional web2 market, games are a very potential market and almost become a part of many people’s lives.And most of the traditional game users do not have much perception of the field of Gamefi (Gaming).From the perspective of TVL, as of writing this article (2024.2.1), the TVL of the Gamefi sector in the figure below is only $ 19.6 billion.
Total viewing of each track, source: coingecko.com
Judging from the development space of GameFi, it is mentioned that more than 2024-12025 Gamefi will have a larger narrative and will receive more attention.
for exampleAzuki researcher Wale SwooshIt is believed that the game will become one of the general trends defined in 2024.In terms of cryptocurrency applications, the game has always been a great Trojan horses, and firmly believes that the web3 game trend seen at the end of 2023 will not only continue next year, but also become more obvious.
Kelvin KOH, co -founder and chief information officer of Spartan CapitalIt is believed that a number of AAA Web3 games will be launched in 2024, and I believe that these games will bring millions of new web3 users.
In general, the current agencies are optimistic about GameFi mainly in two points:
First, in 2024, the blockchain that focused on the game continued to increase.In addition to some traditional old -fashioned public chains, there are also new public chain Oasys, SUI, etc.
Second, the addition of traditional game companies.For example, OASYS has attracted many well -known publishers to join its ecosystem, such as Ubisoft Entertainment (Ubisoft Game Software), Square Enix (a Japanese game software production and development company and publisher), Activision blizzard, EPIC Games and so on.
7) The development of modular and zero -knowledge proof (SNARK) technology
In 2023, the modular blockchain and the zero -knowledge certificate (ZKP) have been fully developed, such as Celestia and ZKEVM.And one obvious phenomenon is that these two narratives have begun to show a trend of integration and development. Projects in the ZK field have begun to combine “modular” development in combination with specific vertical fields (such as associated processors, privacy layers, proof markets, and ZKDEVOPS).
Leeor Groen, managing director of SpartanIt is believed that privacy and security in Web3 will be the key driver. With the development of technology, it will be seen that users are beginning to realize the value of zero knowledge proof and modular blockchain. Users do not even know that they are from digital identity to games and other different each.The back -end of the species depends on these zero -knowledge proof and modular blockchain.
A16ZIt is believed that the rise of modular technology stacks brings the biggest advantage of open source and modular technology stack. As the tools inspired by formal methods are widely adopted by developers and security experts.Being expensive hacker attacks.The mainstreamization of SNARKS technology will become a trend.
For the outlook of 2024, all institutions and researchers also expect that this trend will continue.Zero knowledge proves that it will become the interface between different components of the modular blockchain stack.This provides greater flexibility for developers to build DAPP, while reducing the threshold of the blockchain stack; for consumers, ZKP may be regarded as a way to protect identity and privacy, such as ZK -based decentralized decentralization.The form of identity.
In addition, the focus is that SNARKS provides corresponding proof proofs for the calculation of specific output, which makes the verification ProOF speed far faster than the speed of the corresponding calculation, which will become the project that is optimistic in 2024.
8) The mobile terminal and decentralization trend may become mainstream channels, and the user experience is improved.
No matter what kind of encryption ecosystem, if you want to develop in the long run, its ultimate goal is to attract new users and encourage existing users to become more active participants.With the recovery of the market, the improvement of infrastructure, and the layout of various institutions, various institutions generally believe that cryptocoli users in 2024 will have a significant influx.
Like A16Z chief technical officer Eddy LazzarinIt is believed that although the user experience in the encrypted field has been criticized, developers are actively testing and deploying new tools to reset the encrypted front -end user experience, such as multi -party computing, simplifying the password of login applications and websites, embedded wallets, etc.These innovations will allow users to experience a better and safer environment when using encrypted applications.
However, in general, the reason for the optimism of each institution is mainly the following two points:
On the one hand, a major theme that has appeared in the bear market recently is to pay attention to how to make encryption technology more friendly and easy to use.The additional liability for management of cryptocurrencies and all related content (wallet, private key, GAS fee, etc.) is not suitable for everyone, making it difficult for the industry to mature, unless it can overcome some key challenges related to user experience.For example, focusing on the development of account abstraction, etc., to promote the development of wallet recovery mechanisms, and better create fault insurance for simple human errors (such as losing private keys).
On the other hand, the Ethereum Cankun upgrade may reduce the Rollup transaction cost by 2-10 times. Everyone thinks that more DAPP may pursue the “GAS transaction” path, thereby effectively allowing users to focus on high-level interaction.
9) Regulatory policies
In the past year, the supervision facing the entire encryption industry has intensified. With the expansion of the development of the encryption industry, the compliance of supervision is an inevitable problem.Essence
Many institutions predict that in the new year, with the elections of leaders of various countries, other regulatory policies will continue to be introduced.
Digital assetJi Kim, General Legal Consultant and Global Policy Director of the Innovation Committee (CCI)One of the greater stories in 2024 will be the key hub of the jurisdiction of the judicial region to continue to compete for top positions, competing to become the key hub of digital assets and future financial systems.
Gemini EU leader Gillian LynchIt is believed that although there are still differences in the viewing of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology, most people will agree that the crypto industry needs to be based on customer protection as the core.Help to promote innovation.
Ripple chief legal officer Stuart AlderotyIt is expected that SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple coins will end in 2024, but its regulatory strategy may continue to target other well -known people.The U.S. Congress will work hard to reach the overall agreement on cryptocurrency supervision, but the best method is still required.
02Circuit with less voices
The more controversial tracks are RWA and NFT. Some predictions are rising, and they are relatively small.
1) NFT
Compared with the hot inscription, NFT has been in the downturn in 2023.Except for individual projects, the head blue chip projects have fallen into a bounce instead of reversal.Taking Bayc as an example, the average price at the beginning of the year once reached 71 ETH, but at the end of the year, the floor price fell to less than 30 ETH.
The pattern of the NFT market has also changed dramatically. BLUR competed fiercely from Opensea in early 2023. By the end of the year, Blur almost monopolized market share. The weekly transaction volume of Opensea, which once led, only accounted for 20 in the market in December 2023%.Although OpenSea made product and community feedback to try to resist the impact of BLUR, the effect was very small.With the rise of Blur, the debate of the zero -edition tax has gradually disappeared, and the discussion on “whether the creator should obtain the version tax” has gradually drifted.
NFT trading platform 2023 market share comparison
Some institutions believe that consumer brands will use NFT to give birth to users to participate in the new model. NFT can continue to promote the improvement of the liquidity of collectibles and art markets. Especially if gamefi develops, NFT can also develop waves as important basic accessories.Like A16Z, it means that more and more well -known brands have begun to launch digital assets to mainstream consumers in the form of NFT. In 2024, NFT has become a common conditions for digital brand assets.
Some institutions also believe that the amount of NFT transactions is difficult to reproduce 2021 Firewang scene, because most NFT projects have more hype and lack real cumulative value, NFT creators need to adjust their strategies to enhance their competitiveness.
2) RWA
Compared to NFT, more agencies that are optimistic about RWA will be more:
The block researcherIt is believed that Bitcoin spot ETF has caused the interest of institutions to increase, and the bridge between Defi and Tradfi continues to increase.Conversely, as more types of traditional financial elements enter the chain environment, the tokenized real -world assets have been adopted more, so they can increase RWA.
BitwiseIt is believed that RWA will set off a new trend. At the request of Wall Street, JP Morgan Chase will conduct tokenization and chain the fund.
Delphi DigitalIt is believed that RWA is one of the most successful areas of cryptocurrencies in 2023, and 2024 will continue to develop.
In summary, their reasons are as follows:
It is conducive to building a bridge between traditional institutions and the encrypted world.RWA transforms the assets under the chain to blockchain digital assets, which is easy to understand.Stabilization currency is a common RWA application, because it is based on a tokenized expression based on legal currency.
Many large institutions have increased their investment in the RWA field. At the same time, crypto projects like Chainlink are also working with the world’s largest traditional financial institutions to introduce a large number of RWAs into the encrypted industry and token.Essence
RWA is establishing a financial ecosystem,Among them, digital Token represents tangible assets. This asset is easier to obtain and can be extended to public users, not just privileges investors or institutional investors.The RWA has a wide range, and it can also be divided into various categories such as private credit, national debt, real estate, goods, stablecoin, insurance, etc., and has great application potential.
But the institution that is not very optimistic believes:
As the interest rate reached its peak, the yield on Treasury bonds on the chain appeared.Cryptocurrencies are pursuing the same or even more benefits pursuing traditional financial investors, but everyone’s needs need to be discovered further, and this requires a long development process, but it is difficult to develop in 2024.
3) SocialFi
SocialFi is the fusion of social media and DEFI. From a macro perspective, web2 has a trend of changing from social to finance from social to finance, and web3 has shifted from finance to social.
Looking back at the social media in Web2, Twitter has attracted 100 million users in 5 years. Facebook has used 1 billion in 8 years. SocialFi is still a relatively new concept in comparison.
The SocialFi track has attracted investors’ attention in the second half of 2021. Whale, Chiliz, Rally, BBS Network, Showme, Mirror.xyz and other projects have become popular, and even some platforms have a grand fate of registration invitation code.However, as the market goes, SocialFi is also stunned.
Blink again because in August 2023, Friend.tech created a new social experience form on Base Layer 2, which users can buy and sell “shares” of others on X (Twitter).In October, it reached the peak of 30,000 ETH TVL and inspired several cottage projects.Friend.tech has created a new Token economics model for the SocialFi field by finishing Twitter’s personal data.
However, in these institutions forecast, SocialFi rarely mentioned the development outlook of 2024. It is also mentioned that with the continuous spread of decentralized concepts, more decentralized social media networks and tools will be launched., But we can look forward to whether we can really go out.
03Summarize
Generally speaking, in 2023, the entire encryption industry walked through the trough and despair of the bear market, and began to set off the Mavericks market.The development of the public chain ecosystem headed by Bitcoin has entered a new stage, and the new narrative and new tracks have appeared on Taiwan to lay the foundation for the next big bull market.
