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Author: HUMBLE FARMER ARMY Newsletter Source: Substack Translation: Shan Ouba, Bitchain Vision World World
Before you gave birth to me, I wanted to clarify, I did not say that Celestia was a Ponzi scheme.In fact, I think this is one of the most important technical progress we have seen for a long time.This article only discusses the supply and demand dynamics of the $ TIA tokens, and why I think it is similar to that it is so attractive to the retail industry during the 2021 bubble period.
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This report will be completed in multiple parts:
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What is Celestia?
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What is the narrative of $ TIA tokens?
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What are the similarities between $ tia and (3,3) (3,3)?
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What is the next plan?
What is Celestia?
If I tried to explain the Celestia in detail, this report will become lengthy, so I only recommend wonderful articles written by NoSleepjon.In short, Celestia breaks down the blockchain stack and focuses on the data availability layer.This makes new project deployment new Rollups and blockchain easier and cheap.For example, Manta Network achieved 99.8% of the cost reduction by using Celestia’s data usability to replace Ethereum!
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What is the narrative of $ TIA tokens?
I think Celestia is the purest investment in the empty investment narrative.It was constructed with COSMOS SDK, and in November 2023, the pledgers of OSMO and ATOM airdropd token.We have witnessed the two large airdrops of Dymension and Saga.
Celestia simplifies the startup process of the new Rollup.These Rollup should put some of the supply of air drops to TIA pledges.L1/L2 tokens usually premium in the market.Therefore, the logic behind this narrative is: “The price of TIA is not important, because the airdrop will make up for the loss.”
Now, this statement may be right or wrong.Through my TIA pledge operation, my DYM airdrop has covered the initial cost foundation for me to buy TIA.Therefore, in theory, if I sell my airdrops when I go public in DYM, I can basically say that “free” has gained my TIA position.Of course I don’t do this, because I believe that Dym also has a strong narrative, but it is another topic.
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One of my criticisms for the COSMOS community is that they are really bad and cannot convey their value proposition to cryptocurrency/ordinary people communities.They lived in their bubbles, and as a result, token prices and communities were affected.
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Ironically, the airdrop solves this problem.Developers can have generous airdrops, and the holders of the entire community can figure out what the narrative behind the tokens is.This is very good for all participants, because the community will do all jobs for developers.Developers can develop and the community can be touted.This is why the team’s small airdrops are short.
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The above tweet is a bit like a joke, but it is also serious.The SAGA team and venture capital companies make their best efforts to make it difficult to obtain as much as possible. For example, a snapshot of TIA pledges at 12/1 has a minimum pledge of 23.The purpose of the airdrop is to reward the community.Do they really think that a CELESTIA community will be formed less than one month after the TIA tokens start?The Celestia community has just begun to form, so the future projects should stop killing the airdrop through a very early snapshot.SAGA’s airdrop team and venture capital company pushed it to the middle curve.
On the other hand, DYM is an equal airdrop, which is a snapshot in 12/19, and the minimum TIA pledge is 1.This means that you can pledge $ 20 TIA and get an airdrop of about $ 1,000.They also air invested tokens from Pudgy Penguin and Solana NFT communities.As long as you search for “$ DYM” on Twitter/X, you can see a powerful community, even before the token release!This is how to do.Here is a wonderful discussion about how much DYM should value.
I was extremely empty, and I looked at DYM.
Why is Celestia a new (3,3)
You may realize that this is a self -deficit.The more powerful the Celestia community, the more motivated the team’s air investment to the $ TIA community.After all, this is the spirit of the COSMOS ecosystem, isn’t it?As the market expects more airdrops, the more sensitive buyers will be.And if you pledge TIA for air investment, why do people sell …?
Therefore, the valuation of TIA can be understood like this:
Price (TIA) = Data availability layer value increase + TIA currency premium for TIA currency premium as “modular currency + all future airdrop value”
Now, no one knows how to calculate value growth and currency premium because it has just started.Therefore, people naturally use the value of airdrops as a reason to hold $ TIA.The reason why DYM airdrops are huge because people see it.However, with the announcement of more airdrops, people will buy TIA for pledge (remember, pledged TIA has a 21 -day lifting period).Do you want to guess the time for DYM to claim online?
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Obviously, over time, airdrops will be diluted.However, Celestia has just started two months, so I guess we are still in the early stages of air investment narrative.In fact, most cryptocurrency players traded on the centralized exchange, and they didn’t even know how to pledge Celestia.Therefore, it is reasonable to see that it is reasonable.One day, it is reasonable to cancel the pledged TIA, but I don’t think it’s time now.
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The fact is that retail investors love air investment narrative.What’s wrong with this?The promise of $ 100,000 for $ 100,000 looks like the future of finance.Look at the volume of this video!If you expect retail investors to return through YouTube, they will buy and pledge TIA.With the continuous airdrop and rise of TIA, there will definitely be a new wave of YouTube video bloggers and Tiktok users. They will repeat the fallacy similar to OHM:”OHM’s price can fall 99%because APY will make up for it.””The price of TIA is irrelevant, because the airdrop will make up for it.”
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Look?Of course, I believe that TIA is one of the most important innovations in this round of this cycle, but this does not mean that this number will always rise.I predict that this situation will happen again, because human greed can be predicted, and the temptation of influenzers to propagate their audiences is inevitable.Of course, you can say one of me.But I also believe that pledged TIA in the early stage of the bull market will be very favorable.I just warn what you may happen so that you can be ready.This is also my writing this article to remind myself that I need to maintain humility and profit after 12 months, even if the narrative looks indestructible.The following is how I think the price of TIA will change in the upcoming cycle:
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I spent 30 seconds to paint this chart.Of course, there will be a callback, and I may be wrong.I think that TIA will become amazing positions during the bull market, but it will also become a painful bear market holding, because once people realize that the valuation is meaningless, it will sell.The termination of 21 days will make this situation more serious.
So what is the plan?
I will pledge TIA in the next cycle.I will hold part of the airdrops and sell some airdrops.I expect this to bring benefits.But when do I sell?To be honest, I don’t know at all.My current plan is that once Coinbase ranks first in the Apple App Store, or the mainstream coins reached a record high, it began to reduce my TIA position.
I also want to remind me that today is January 13, 2024.If you see this post in the future, my point of view may have changed.I am also not good at predicting short -term price trends.Only time will give the answer!
