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When it comes to the values of the crypto world, the concept of decentralization is the most well-known.Tracing the origin, the emergence of cryptocurrencies comes shortly after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. In the context of the turbulent global currency crisis, Satoshi Nakamoto proposed the concept of decentralized currency, and Bitcoin emerged, laying the foundation for the value belief in the crypto world.In the next decade, around decentralization, the crypto ecosystem has been continuously expanded and expanded, and value beliefs and technological beliefs have gone from controversy to unification, and from unification to dispersion, and have developed in the theory of value and price.But no matter how controversial it is, Bitcoin is the most solid value pillar in the crypto world, from miners to mines, from capital to institutions, despite the so-calledThe “bank makers” are constantly changing. The market firmly believes that no one can own more than 51% of Bitcoin, and they also recognize it as a successful demonstration sample of decentralized currencies.
But in recent years, decentralized currencies seem to have returned to the centralized context.fromStarting from 2020, Wall Street institutions and listed companies started the Bitcoin purchase craze. Last year, Bitcoin spot ETFs were listed, and now, the establishment of the US Bitcoin strategic reserves shows that institutional investors, listed companies, and even countries have begun to hold a large amount of Bitcoin.This move has both advantages and disadvantages. The advantage is the rise in prices. The injection of liquidity successfully pushed Bitcoin to $100,000, which not only left a strong mark in the history of cryptocurrency, but also truly gave the diamond hands glory.Compliance makes holders’ threshold higher, cryptocurrencies have entered the mainstream for the first time, speculators have also turned gorgeously into value investors, and by the way they have been labeled as emerging asset holders.
But the disadvantages are also obvious. Miners are moving behind the scenes, the linkage between the crypto market and the US stock market is becoming increasingly close, independent markets are difficult to find, and the macro economy is stimulating the fragile nerves of the market. The current market interprets this very well. Everyone’s focus is either on the tariff war or discussing the US interest rate cut, or on the list researchThe inflow of ETFs and the priority of technological progress are constantly recursive.Compliance and regulation have not made the crypto market shine brightly. Instead, they have let the president take the opportunity to cut the first leeks. The family MEME storm continues, and Defi and chain games must also be grasped.
Combining the above, questions are also emerging, who holds the most Bitcoin?Is the growing growth of institutional investors a good thing for Bitcoin?As more and moreBTC is locked in cold wallets, Treasury bonds and ETFs, is on-chain data losing reliability?Regarding this issue, Bitcoin Magazine reporter Matt Crosby also conducted research, and translated his report here to explain whether Bitcoin’s decentralized spirit is truly at risk or is simply evolving.
New whale
Start with the financial data of listed companies.From the data,includeLarge-scale products including Strategy, MetaPlanet, etc.Going on the marketThe company has accumulated more than700,000 BTC.StrategyIt is the well-deserved leader among them,On April 21, 2025, Strategy held 538,200 bitcoins, with a total purchase cost of approximately US$36.47 billion and an average price of approximately US$67,766. In the past six months, it hasAcquisitioned379,800 BTC.Considering that the total supply limit of Bitcoin is21 million pieces, which accounts for about 3.33% of the total supply of BTC in the future.Although this supply cap isThe holder’s current stageIt cannot be achieved in life, butReflected phenomenonObviously:Listed companiesLong-term bets are being made.
Figure 1: Listed companies have the highest BTC holdings
In addition to the Bitcoin held directly by the enterprise,passEFT cumulative flow (BTC)As can be seen in the chart,ETFIt also accounts for a considerable share.As of this writing, spot bitcoinETF HoldingAbout 965,000 BTC, slightly less than 5% of the total supply.This number fluctuatesRelatively limited, but it is still the main force that affects daily market dynamics, taking BlackRock as an example,according toBlackRock data shows that the IBIT fund was launched simultaneously with 10 other US spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, and its current net assets are approximately US$53.77 billion.In the past 30 days, the fund’s average daily trading volume reached 45.02 million shares.likeCorporate Treasury Debts andThe combined ETF holdings will climb to more than 1.67 million BTC, accounting for about 8% of the total theoretical supply., but this data is still more than that.
Figure 2: ETFs stimulate institutions’ interest in BTC
In addition to Wall Street and Silicon Valley,Some regions and countriesThe government is nowwidelyActive in the Bitcoin field.Through reserves of initiatives such as sovereign purchases and strategic Bitcoin reserves,Region andThe state holds a contract542,000 Bitcoins.Add to the previous institutional holdings,CanGot itin conclusion,mechanism,ETFs and governments hold more than 2.2 million Bitcoins.On the surface, this accounts for about 10.14% of the total Bitcoin supply 21 million.
ForgottenSatoshi Nakamotoand lost supply
In fact, not all21 million BTCAll can be accessedand tracking.according to“10+ Years HODL Wave”The data (this data measures the currency that has not been moved in a decade) is more than3.4 million BTC possiblealreadyLost forever,This includes Satoshi Nakamoto’s wallet and early miningcurrency of the generation, forgottenpasswordThere are even landfillsUSB drive.
Figure 3: The number of lost BTC can be imagined to exceed 3.4 million
Currently circulatingThere are about 19.8 million BTC, and about 17.15% of it is expected to be lost, so the actual supply is close to 16.45 million.This completely changed the current balance,As measured by more practical supply, theThe BTC ratio rose to about 13.44%.This means that about 1 of every 7.4 BTC on the market has been locked by institutions, ETFs or sovereign states.
In this context,Is the institutionsufficientControlling Bitcoin?
Fortunately, from the data,None yetThis trend.But this does show that its influence is growing, especially in terms of price behavior.fromJudging from the correlation chart of the S&P 500 index and Bitcoin, Bitcoin and S&PThe correlation between traditional stock indices such as the 500 index or Nasdaq has been significantly enhanced.As these large entities enter the market, BTCIt is increasingly regarded as a “risk-favorite” asset, which means that its prices tend to fluctuate with changes in investor sentiment in traditional markets.
picture4: Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index continue to increase
This is in a bull marketIt will be relatively beneficial.When global liquidity expands and risky assets perform well, Bitcoin is now expected to attract larger inflows than ever before, especially as pensions, hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds begin to allocate their portfolios, even if only a small percentage.butAmong them,There is also a trade-off,As institutional adoption deepens, Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions will increase.Central bank policies, bond yields and stock volatility are all starting to become more important than ever.
Despite these changes,85% of Bitcoin still has not entered the hands of institutional investors.Retail investors still hold the vast majority of Bitcoin supply.ETFs and corporate vaults may have stockpiled a lot of bitcoin in cold wallets, but the market remains highly decentralized.There are also industry criticismsPeople believe that the use of on-chain data is declining.After all, if so manyWith BTC locked in ETFs or idle wallets, can we still draw accurate conclusions from wallet activities?This concernAlthough notIt’s groundless, butalsoNot new.
newadapt
Historically, most of Bitcoin’s transaction activity has occurred off-chain, especially inCoinbase, Binance andOnceCentralized exchanges such as FTX.These transactions rarely appear on the chain in meaningful ways, but still affect prices and market structure.now,marketFacing a similar situation, there are better tools.ETF capital flows, company filings, and even state purchases are subject to information disclosure regulations.Unlike opaque exchanges, these institutional participants often have to disclose their positions, which provides analysts with a lot of tracking data.
In addition, on-chain analysis is not static.pictureTools like MVRV-Z ratings are constantly evolving.By reducing focusSmallMVRV Z Rating 2 Years ScrollAverage rather thanComplete historical data can better capture current market dynamics without being affected by long-term lost tokens or inactive supply.
Figure 5: More targeted 2-year rolling MVRV Z scores can better capture market dynamics
in conclusion
All in all, institutional investors’ interest in Bitcoin has risen unprecedentedly.existBetween ETFs, corporate bonds and sovereign entities, Bitcoin has exceeded 2.2 million, and this number is still growing.During a period of weak markets, this influx of funds undoubtedly played a role in stabilizing prices.However, this stability also brings some entanglement.Bitcoin is increasingly connected to the traditional financial system, and its correlation with stocks and broader economic sentiment is growing.
This does not mean that the era of Bitcoin’s decentralization or on-chain analytics is over.In fact, as more and more Bitcoins are held by recognizable institutions, the ability to track the flow of funds will become more accurate.Retail investors still dominate.Chain on and offofanalyzeTools are also becoming smarter and responding to market changes more sensitively.The spirit of Bitcoin’s decentralization is not threatened, it is just maturing.Just analyze the framework with BitcoinCan keep pace with the times and develop together,It will inevitably be able to meet the corresponding challenges in the future.
