jakiro
2024 may be the most important year for on-chain development after the summer of DeFi, and on-chain narrative investment opportunities continue to emerge.According to the author’s observation, as the concept of “everything can be meme” becomes more and more popular, Pump Fun’s rapid asset issuance has become mainstream, and Meme can start from 0, and the upper limit of the on-chain space market value (not online for top CEX) is about US$1 billion.
For ordinary users, there is enough profit margin on the chain, and the existence of top CEX is the last link of the exit of on-chain investment.As VCCoin intensifies conflicts with the community, new assets that launch top CEXs often perform poorly; while the old coins that launch top CEXs are mostly in trouble, the team’s motivation has not recovered or cannot keep up with market changes, waiting to unlock the flat state.
This article is mainly based on predictions of on-chain transactions and investments, focusing on on-chain interpretations, and is only a shallow prediction by the author, not as any investment advice, but is for thinking only.
1. The monthly trading volume of DEX/CEX will exceed 20% for the first time
According to Blockchain data, the DEX trading volume exceeded US$320 billion in December 2024, completing its historical high, with a year-on-year increase of more than 200%;In December 2024, the proportion of DEX/CEX trading volume reached 11.64%, an increase from 9.55% in December 2023, and the proportion of DEX/CEX trading volume reached 13.86% in 2024.The continuous optimization of on-chain tools such as Web3 wallets led by CEX may accelerate the popularity of on-chain transactions; the popularity and wealth effect triggered by Meme are one of the important factors driving users to migrate from CEX to DEX.
2. The total market value of AI Agents/AI Meme will at least exceed that of NFTs at its peak, and there will definitely be AI Agents tokens with a market value of more than US$10 billion.
The combination of AI Agent and tokenization is a narrative of the rapid development of the crypto market in the second half of 2024, and various AI Agents emerge one after another.
From the chatbot Truth Terminal (GOAT) that opened the Pandora’s box of AI Agent, to the Eliza framework for deploying AI Agent and its tokens based on the big language model, only a few were usedThe time of month.
Currently there are at least ai16z-Eliza, Virtuals Protocol-Game Framework, arc Framework, Zerebro-Zerepy and Dolion Framework on the market.Among them, ai16z – Eliza and Virtuals Protocol – Game Framework form a powerful ecological moat, among which popular sub-coins derived from AI Agents are rapidly entering the market.
According to CoinGecko data, the total market value of AI Agent-related tokens has reached US$12 billion.Among them, Virtuals Protocol’s VIRTUAL plays a role similar to SOL transactions tokens on the Solana network on the Base network, while AIXBT, GAME, LUNA and other sub-coins stimulate the prosperity of the ecosystem, gave birth to virtual mother coins, and became the highest market value.AI Agent-related tokens reached US$3.5 billion.
3. It is expected that 3-5 vertical issuance platforms based on Pump Fun will appear in the future
As the very in-depth and fast Launchpad deployed tokens on the Solana network, Pump Fun has become the most profitable application in cryptocurrencies this year, with tens of thousands of Memecoin issuances every day.
With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks have also begun to follow suit, launching similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms such as SunPump on the Tron network, Uptos on the Aptos network, and Farcaster-based Clanker on the Base network.
In addition, Memecoin is gradually accumulating, and everything can be meme. The demand for refinement is becoming stronger and stronger. Vertical Pump Fun distribution platforms are gradually emerging, such as vvaifu, which focuses on the issuance of AI Agents, and Pump Science, which focuses on DeSci.AI Agents have become multi-billion dollar interactions, and DeScI is about to see Binance’s focus on DeSci and the listing and manipulation potential of the iconic protocol Bio Protocol.Essentially, it is based on different narratives and imaginations.The demand for decentralized currency issuance and rapid asset issuance is expected to generate more interpretations based on more vertical issuance platforms based on Pump Fun in the future.
4. At least 5 Base ecological tokens will be launched on Binance Spot
As a benchmark, Binance has launched perpetual contract transactions of DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT, but has not yet launched any spot stocks of the Base ecosystem.
From the perspective of traffic, transaction activity, and wealth effects, Base is the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, Base’s ecological effect will be concentrated, represented by Virtuals and Farcaster systems, among which the market value of Virtuals has beenApproximately $5 billion, leading the way in Crypto x AI Agents.Base Ecosystem may be the most likely bet on top exchanges to go online, and it is only a matter of time before the first Base Ecosystem is launched on Binance.
As a public chain under the US compliance exchange Coinabse, it relies on Coinbase wallet to open up the fiat currency channel from Base-USDC to bank accounts.
With the Trump administration officially inaugurated, Coinbase and Base may be the first exchanges and networks to earn dividends if good policies that benefit encryption are hampered.
Additionally, with Base head Jesse Pollak officially joining the Coinbase executive team and leading the Coinbase wallet in October, Base Network should receive further attention in Coinbase’s strategic vision.
5. Hyperliquid will have multiple spot opportunities with a market value of over $1 billion
Hyperliuqid has greatly increased community participation and user attention through large-scale HYPE token airdrops and wealth effects.At present, Hyperliuqid’s Arbitrum Bridge fund has sunk more than US$2 billion, and is actually the 15th exchange; the total market value of the platform currency HYPE once exceeded US$10 billion and the FDV exceeded US$30 billion.
Judging from the development path of CEX, especially the relatively young CEX, it mainly started with contracts with excellent performance and liquidity, but the real brand moat is the wealth effect brought by exclusive spot.
Hyperliquid’s HIP-1 and HIP-2 standards make it possible to introduce exclusive assets, a capability that was not available to on-chain exchanges that have tried to move from contracts to spot trading in the past.The HIP-1 standard allows tokens to be traded directly on-chain, while the HIP-2 standard supports the market performance of these tokens by embedding liquidity at issuance.
When it is difficult to list the top CEX and the asking price is high, launching Hyperliquid through spot seat auctions has become a good choice.Projects known to have completed auctions on Hyperliquid but not officially launched include Solv Protocol (SOLV) and Azuki-Anime (ANIME).
Currently, the main market value and trading volume of Hyperliquid spot are concentrated in HYPE, and there are only two projects with a market value of more than US$100 million.
When HYPE has a high market value, more funds are needed to drive the market; the platform joins forces with some excellent exclusive projects to jointly create the wealth effect of exclusive assets, which is obviously higher, and HYPE ultimately benefits from Hyperliquid trading volume andImproved reputation.
