jakiro
Author: Zolo, TechFlow
It seems that everyone is full of expectations for 2025, market reasons, and hot reasons.Project parties, leeks, KOLs, VCs… Everyone is ready to do a big fight.
I’m one of them too.But I began to be alert, how can I make myself feel better when everyone wants to do something bigDon’t be “been” and do something big.
Looking back at 2024, I hope that in 2025 what I come into contact with and what I create is real and has positive value to the industry.
True information: Information cocoons are everywhere. What we pursue is not more information, but real information.
Don’t be superstitious about a single channel
This year, the first time I deeply realized that this matter was the US election.If you only look at Polymarket, you will always feel that Trump will win firmly, and the fluctuations in the middle will be unexpected.
If you only look at “some American party media”, you will feel that Harris still has a chance of winning; and if the information channel is changed to Twitter, you will find that Twitter is full of news that Trump wants to win.
There is no right or wrong information, but both are narrow-minded.
Therefore, when we only use Twitter to evaluate the popularity and reputation of a project, we should also look at the data on the chain, community discussions, communication with people, etc.
Enrich your channels and make the signals you receive more diverse.
Escape from KOL’s prejudice
What impressed me the most this year was the discussion about ai16z, which I followed from the beginning to the present by chance.
Some are good, some are bad.For example, at the beginning, the founder’s unrestrained speech made many people worry about their positions. KOLs of the level such as Ansem and Him were also making public FUD ai16z.
In the dispute over eliza/Eliza case, different KOLs also hold very different opinions.
It is normal to have different views, and it is normal to criticize a project, but if all opinions are separated from logic and become emotional and solidified, it is biased..
During this period, if you just look at those who have been bullish ai16z, you will feel that the project’s problems are not worth mentioning, and of course you also need to bear the selling pressure during that period.
Also during this period, if you only follow those KOLs that are still in FUD no matter how ai16z becomes better, the information you receive will always be negative, which will make you miss 10 or even 100 times the profit.
There is nothing right or wrong with KOL, but every KOL is just an information cocoon.Their quality is good and bad, but because they are individuals, they must have their own solidified cognition or even some prejudice.When you are investigating a project, don’t ignore those friends around you who have really in-depth research on a project.
Beware of cabals, your gossip is all about “loss news”
Many friends have shared on Twitter that more than 80% of the “good news” they get are losing money.
The same is true for me. It’s not that I have malicious intentions to share the “good news” with you, but because everyone is part of the Play.
You don’t know the authenticity of the news (will pull it);
Don’t know the validity of the message (where to pull);
I don’t know who I am the first person who knows the news as well (whether the buying point is low enough);
……
The probability of these messages being “distorted” is too high.So much so that these “good news” become “lost money” when you come to you.
Real users: Reject false data boom, traffic is important, but don’t be addicted to traffic
The industry’s traffic becomes more false, and we need real influence
Whether it is Twitter fans, website traffic, or AMA users, the number of fake traffic is increasing, which has also supported many “traffic traffic” services around it.
For my own work, I have a deeper understanding.
The influence of the media and traffic are a very important judgment factor. Many people who don’t know the industry generally use some third-party tools to directly judge whether the media is worthy of cooperation from the perspective of traffic.
This also directly leads to “buying traffic”, attracting “buying”, and becoming a common phenomenon, which is the case in any industry.
But “buyed traffic” does not bring “real influence”;
The “business” it attracts cannot bring them “good results”.
In this loop:
The platform wants to buy traffic to make it seem that it has a great influence;
The project party needs good traffic to prove that what they do is effective;
Different platforms compete with each other, and the cost of buying traffic is gradually increasing;
As traffic becomes larger, the surface effect becomes better, the industry enters a false prosperity, and only wealth is truly transferred to “traffic service providers”.
I would like to call this phenomenon “Traffic Addiction TrafficSick“. Once you get infected, you will get deeper and deeper.
How to judge the real influence?
Try to communicate with real people, communicate with different roles in the industry, ask them how they view a certain issue, have they read a certain content, what comments do they have, etc.
This is also the reason why I participated in many activities last year. Only by truly contacting and communicating with different friends offline can I know what everyone thinks of us, what are we discussing now, what is the atmosphere of the community now, and what is likeThe content is what users are really interested in.
Only with real influence and real feedback can we enter a positive cycle.
Don’t be afraid of low traffic, you might as well create an emotional niche community first.
When I was advertising, I was deeply influenced by a point of view:
Everyone must have some commonalities at the bottom of the world, so no matter what you do, as long as this thing is “you are truly moved” and “you deeply recognize it”, at one end of the world, someone will definitely follow you.There will be the same resonance.
Just like listening to music, “niche music” is always just a relative concept and always has a market.
So from a market perspective, the problem solved is actually very clear:
1- Are you doing something that you are truly touching and acknowledging?
2- Have you spread this matter widely enough?
For Web3, although our market is getting bigger and bigger, the advantage is that our traffic is not very dispersed.You can count the areas where users are in, which social software they use, and what your competitors are.
Loyal Member must be attracted by some of your “extreme concepts, ideas, attitudes” and so on.As long as you find them, they will come because of you and start gathering to form a community.
There are no need for many people, because these dozens of people may have much better results than tens of thousands of people.So, we should not worry about the lack of traffic, but whether what we do can really attract people.
Real creation: When AI becomes a creative tool for everyone, what kind of content will attract people?
In addition to the hype of concepts such as AI Agent this year, AI as a tool is also greatly improving our productivity.But one point that everyone generally comments now is:This thing is very AI.
Regardless of whether you discover it or not, what you will gradually discover is:
The content you see will become more and more homogeneous; the content framework and reasoning logic will become more and more similar; the content cited by arguments will gradually converge; and the research content will become more and more (because it is easier to produce hydrology).
I know that some content platforms have actually been using AI to produce content, expand their own databases, engage in SEO, and make money from traffic.
But users will also be aesthetically fatigued.
So when AI is generally called a creative tool, what kind of things will attract people?I think there are two aspects:
1-We should pay attention to Idea.
Have your own ideas about the content produced, break the inherent framework, and enter from different angles.
2-We should create something new.
People always applaud what they have “never seen”.Creativity is illogical, random combination, and “never seen”.
We should pay more attention to creating content rather than organizing it.
Real link: Time is precious, don’t waste it casually
A long-term and healthy relationship should be mutually beneficial, rather than unilaterally and constantly free.
People who do not recognize your labor value will constantly ask you for “help”;
People who are stingy with others/community cannot be willing to share the benefits that match your efforts.
When everyone seems to be going big in 2025, I don’t want to be the one who “only ask for” but is unwilling to give.
This year my puppy got seriously ill. When I spent a lot of time taking care of her, I realized that I had been asking her for emotional value before.
When I was meeting my emotional needs of Maslow, I couldn’t even meet her most basic dietary needs of eating on time.
Many people have very precious time this year. Don’t be afraid to seek help, but remember not to just ask for it.
Mutually beneficial links are real and effective links.
There is no turning back on the arrow, I think this should be the attitude of doing things this year.
Put heavy bets on things you recognize, don’t distract too much, and don’t feel that you have the next chance if you don’t do well.
The above is my 2024 summary and my expectations for myself in 2025.
Finally, I would like to thank my partners who chose Shenchao in 2024. I hope to work together in 2025 and do something more interesting and creative together.
Those who see this, I wish you can gain something in 2025 from what you recognize. Happy New Year? ~
