jakiro
Since mid-August, the consensus on Bitcoin has begun to appear in rifts.On the one hand, long-term investors have gradually taken profits, resulting in the continued expansion of the scale of realized returns; on the other hand, the pace of ETFs and listed treasury companies hoarding Bitcoin has slowed down significantly, and the inflow of incremental funds has shrunk significantly.What is even more worrying is that historical data shows that September in the past 14 years was the only month with negative average return of Bitcoin. The current weak capital market resonates with seasonal negative factors, further exacerbating the market’s pessimistic expectations.
From a trading perspective, market sentiment is gradually turning to cautious.One intuitive evidence is that the skewness of Bitcoin 25 Delta options (reflecting the degree of asymmetry between downward expectations and upward expectations) has reached 15%, a record high since March 2023, reflecting that investors are actively seeking risk protection and market hedging demand has increased significantly.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin treasury company MSTR has also suffered severe suppression from shorts, and its downward options premium rate on rising options has risen to 8.3% (25 – Delta Put / Call Premium), a sharp increase of 11.2% from the 52-week average.It is worth noting that after the company announced on August 18 that it would give up its promise to “not make additional ATMs when the stock price is lower than 2.5 times NAV”, the put options trading volume of MSTR surged three times month-on-month that week.On the other hand, Metaplanet, another Bitcoin treasury company benchmarked against MSTR, has fallen halved since its peak in June, and its trend has gradually decoupled from Bitcoin.These data show that the market’s enthusiasm for Bitcoin treasury companies is cooling rapidly.
However, Bitcoin is still in a benign cycle of profit-taking, chip turnover, and a new balance, rather than a trend turning point.
First of all, it’s not a day to freeze three feet.The formation of a trend is often a process of gradually accumulating from quantitative change to qualitative change, and the same is true for its collapse.Only when the number of “traitors” in the group camp accumulates to a certain extent will the original trend undergo fundamental changes.A flash crash like August 25 without warning still needs to be reproduced several times before it can be confirmed as a valid signal of weakening trends.What’s more, the current adjustment has not yet fallen below the market average cost of 106,700-93,000-120,000, a stack of 5.5 million Bitcoin chips has accumulated in the price range of 93,000-120,000. The adjustment is still a strong fluctuation (it is a weak fluctuation only if it falls below 106,700).
Secondly, although the purchasing power of ETFs and listed treasury companies is gradually weakening, the relaxation of the 401(k) pension investment threshold and the increase in hedging demand during the US dollar depreciation cycle are expected to become new driving forces for the market.According to data disclosed in the second quarter of 2025, several public pension funds, including the Wisconsin Investment Commission and the Michigan Retirement System, have significantly increased Bitcoin allocation through spot Bitcoin ETFs, of which Wisconsin holds more than $600 million in IBIT, and the Michigan Retirement System has significantly increased its ARKB holdings by 200%.The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, the Norwegian government pension fund, has also indirectly expanded its Bitcoin exposure (about 7,160 pieces) by increasing its holdings of stocks such as MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, and Coinbase, an increase of 83% over the previous quarter.These institutional trends show that traditional long-term capital is systematically accepting Bitcoin as a strategic asset to combat the depreciation of the US dollar and inflation, and its continued inflow is expected to provide more stable structural support for the market.
According to TradingView data, since October 2024, Bitcoin and gold have been in a convergent overall, but the rise in each round of Bitcoin lags by 3-5 weeks behind gold.This also explains why gold was the first to hit a record high in this round, and Bitcoin did not follow up immediately.As long as the market’s expectations for Fed monetary easing and the depreciation of the US dollar remain unchanged, Bitcoin’s subsequent rebound will still be a high probability event.
Although the probability of Bitcoin’s continuous sharp decline in the short term is low, historically, the weekly level MACD dead-fork adjustment cycle usually lasts for at least 10 weeks.The current weekly level adjustment of Bitcoin has only been in 4 weeks, and it is still far from sufficient from a time dimension.Even though Bitcoin’s adjustment cycle continues to converge as the chips continue to concentrate, this round of adjustment will take at least 6-7 weeks.
Compared with Bitcoin, Ethereum’s current price deviates from the average market cost more significantly, and has risen to its highest level in the past three years (active realization price + 1 standard deviation).Therefore, Ethereum’s adjustment cycle is expected to be longer than Bitcoin and may last 5 to 10 weeks.Given that capital inflows are still strong, adjustments may be carried out in a moderate way, and time exchanges space, that is, repeated fluctuations in the range of 4000 to 4600.
In fact, it is no accident that cryptocurrencies have historically performed weakly in September, a trend that is highly consistent with the traditional seasonal downturn in U.S. stocks.Historical data shows that since 1950, the S&P 500 has had an average return of negative in September (about -0.5%), making it the only month for the whole year with negative average returns.This cross-market correlation suggests that cryptocurrencies may also be affected by seasonal capital flows and risk aversion sentiment, making September a period for investors to be extra vigilant.
Recently, as the Fed’s interest rate cut window is about to open, 30-year Treasury bonds in many major economies around the world have fallen sharply, causing widespread market concerns.This phenomenon shows that investors’ concerns about the continued upward long-term inflation and fiscal sustainability are fermenting rapidly.It not only reflects the pressure on the independence of the central bank’s policy, but also reveals the possible vicious cycle risks between the expansion of government debt scale and the rise in interest rates.If yields continue to rise, it will push up financing costs across the society, curb the momentum of economic recovery, and may trigger turmoil in the global financial market.
