jakiro
Author: Zhu Weisha
Recently a friend asked me:“Why hasn’t the price of Bitcoin increased?” Behind this question is the general confusion and anxiety in the market.I think it is necessary to compile the analysis of this issue into a document for more people to refer to.
The failure of Bitcoin prices to rise is the result of a combination of factors.
1. The artificial intelligence craze sucks away market funds
I pointed out in a previous article that at that time, artificial intelligence had not yet reached the market tipping point, and Nvidia’s valuation might not exceed US$3 trillion.However, the subsequent development of AI technology far exceeded expectations, and Nvidia’s stock price continued to rise, becoming the focus of the capital market.
Capital naturally chases hot spots.AI not only has powerful narrative capabilities, but also comes with huge computing power orders and giant layouts, triggering a “herd effect.”Market funds are limited, and a large amount of speculative capital has poured into the AI field, which naturally weakens the purchasing power of Bitcoin.In contrast, Bitcoin lacks a “new story” and has difficulty attracting short-term speculators.
2. Regulatory incidents raise safety questions
U.S. police seized $15 billion worth of Bitcoins from Chen Zhi’s criminal proceeds, but did not disclose the specific details of the operation.This incident triggered market concerns about the privacy and security of Bitcoin.
The recent price increase of the privacy coin Zcash also reflects the market’s pursuit of privacy protection functions.However, although privacy coins such as Zcash provide privacy options, their dual-address system is fundamentally different from Bitcoin’s transparent ledger concept.Satoshi Nakamoto once expressed “disappointment with crypto-anarchy” and his philosophy prefers to strike a balance between transparency and privacy.
Transparency is the cornerstone of Bitcoin’s credibility.In the future, solutions such as “chainless systems” that can both meet regulatory requirements and protect user privacy may be more in line with the direction of market development.
3. Historical level of liquidation affects market confidence
On October 11, 2025, the cryptocurrency market suffered the largest liquidation in history.According to CoinGlass data, nearly $19.4 billion was forced to liquidate within 24 hours, and more than 1.6 million transactions were liquidated, most of which were long positions.
This liquidation not only severely damaged market confidence, but also caused a large number of Bitcoins to be sold to make up for losses, further exacerbating the downward trend.The profit makers are the short sellers, who often do not continue to be optimistic about Bitcoin, but turn to new hot spots such as privacy coins.After experiencing such a shock, the market needs time to recover, and there will be insufficient upward momentum in the short term.
4. Four-year cycle psychology affects market expectations
Bitcoin’s third halving is the fourth cycle.It started rising in October 2020 and entered a bear market 18 months after the double top.That is, the bull market cycle lasts for 18 months.Bitcoin will start to rise in October 2023 (this is still the fourth cycle).It has been a bull market cycle for a little more than two years now, exceeding the fourth cycle of bull market time.And there is no double top. Referring to the data of the fourth cycle, it may enter a bear market in 4 months.See Figure 1 below. The downward part of the second peak in the fourth cycle is from the red circle after the second line. There are still four cycles to enter the bear market.Although the energy areas of the two cycles are completely different, the psychological shadow is still there.The second red dot is the rising position of the fifth cycle.
If everyone thinks so, then the result will definitely be a bear market.The psychological impact determines that people dare not take action.
This consistency of expectation itself can inhibit buying and create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
5. Gold is still the first choice for safe haven, and Bitcoin has not been endorsed by the state.
Gold is rising because some central banks are backing it.And what about Bitcoin?It still lingers on the fringes of the mainstream financial system.
The United States appears extremely short-sighted on this point.The so-called “crypto czar” probably didn’t even understand the first half of Bitcoin and would only focus on stablecoins.He doesn’t understand that Bitcoin is the commanding heights of future currency wars.If the United States continues to be lethargic and cannot sell gold, effectively forming a strategic reserve of Bitcoin and allowing the gold alliance to form an encirclement, then it will not only lose Bitcoin, but also the United States’ own financial future.
6. The threat of quantum computing triggers technical concerns
There has been an increase in recent discussions about the threat posed by quantum attacks to the Bitcoin system. Although most people have limited understanding of this, it still triggers a wait-and-see mood.In addition, problems such as the concentration of computing power, the reduction of core developers, and the lack of governance rights of currency holders have exposed a deeper crisis in Bitcoin: a community dominated by technical geeks is losing touch with the finance, politics, and people of the real world.
7. Bitcoin lacks new narrative and leadership
Although the above problems can be solved, if they are not improved, the price increase of Bitcoin will be limited.At present, most of the opinion leaders in the cryptocurrency field are technical personnel and lack financial and strategic vision.Satoshi’s absence may have been an advantage in the early days, but it has become a source of uncertainty at the current stage.
I once suggested that Hong Kong introduce Zhao Changpeng, but in the end he was absorbed by the United States.If you want to lead the future of currency, you must strive for the influence of Satoshi Nakamoto – this is the key to determining whether Bitcoin can break through the difficulties and lead the reform of legal currency.
Conclusion
The failure of Bitcoin prices to rise is the result of multiple factors intertwined with technology, market, psychology, policy and narrative.Only by achieving breakthroughs at the governance, narrative and strategic levels can Bitcoin truly usher in the next round of explosion.
