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Author: Katherine Ross, Blockwoeks; Compiled by: Deng Tong, Bitchain Vision
Fasten your seat belt and we will conduct some technical analysis in depth.
Bitcoin fell below $60,000 on Monday.Although prices have since returned to that level, people are still speculating on the next support line, and some wonder if prices will fall further.
John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, talked about some technical levels worth paying attention to.He saidThe next support level will be $55,000 or $56,000;The last time we saw the price was in early May.
If Bitcoin falls below that level, focus on $49,000.
Despite the fluctuations, Glover is still optimistic about the overall environment.
“I think there will be inflationary pressure in the fall, which will drive Bitcoin higher. I think [SEC] will approve [spot ether ETF], which may be done in the late summer, which will drive up prices,” he said.Glover said.
“Then there will be some exogenous shocks that we don’t even know about, but I think that might drive prices back. But in reality, we all have to realize that we are in the early stages of adopting Bitcoin with a larger investor market.stage,” he continued.
His analysis is based on Elliott Wave Theory, which examines recurring long-term price patterns due to changes in investors’ psychological and emotional states.The theory believes thatThe market fluctuates in a predictable volatility, reflecting the collective sentiment of investors.If you are a nerd like me, it’s an interesting way to measure the long-term prospect by observing how history repeats itself.
Elliott Wave Theory assumes there are five waves in total.According to Glover’s assessment,We are most likely to be in the third wave of the fifth wave.As the chart shows, Bitcoin does experience the first and second waves.The third wave usually indicates that a correction is required to be retraceed before Bitcoin gains momentum.
The general consensus is that once we have spent the summer, the market from there may be a lot more smooth (keywords: possible).
In the Empire newsletter, we previously discussed that Bitcoin will exceed $80,000 by year-end based on multiple analytical forecasts.
“My core point is that I believe BTC will reach $85,000 to $95,000 by the end of the year, but I think there will be catalysts to achieve this until sometime in the late summer, which may be the SEC approval of the Ethereum ETF, which willPush up all asset prices,” Glover said.
We may see these ETFs approved in early July.The updated registration statement was submitted last week.
Glover’s prediction can be seen in any wave below.
Glover Analyzing Elliott Waves of Bitcoin
Glover pointed out that at this stage, Bitcoin trading is like technology stocks.Think of Meta or Tesla a few years ago.He said we’ll see it fall back, but then it will recover like it did earlier this week.
But Glover’s focus is not limited to Bitcoin.He also talked aboutWhy we haven’t seen the explosive growth of altcoins that investors have been accustomed to in the past cycle.
This can be attributed to a certain extent to changes in the investor structure this cycle, with highly speculative retail investors accounting for a minority.Apparently, institutions and big companies like BlackRock have taken the center stage with their products.This is not particularly surprising considering the events that took place in 2022.
Glover finally believes thatApart from the top five or so, altcoins may not rebound this cycle.
“Traditional investors will not buy altcoins, only retail investors are buying altcoins.Many of them were seriously hurt in 2023.I think a lot of people who used to be very willing to speculate wildly in the altcoin market now no longer exists, they are seriously hurt, and now they are like, ‘I don’t want to feel that pain again.’ So I think it’s just a matter of quantity, and that’s right,” Glover said.
So, when we go all out for a brutal summer, wear your seat belt.If we can get through the difficulties, the days ahead may be better.
