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Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise; Translated by: AIMan@Bitlink Vision
I’m very optimistic about the outlook for cryptocurrencies this year.The current environment—increasing institutional participation, improving regulatory environment, and enormous advances in blockchain technology—is very strong.
My basic forecast is that most crypto assets will trade at record highs this year and Bitcoin will exceed $200,000.
but…
People often ask me,What factors will hinder the development of cryptocurrencies.My answer is simple: people.More specifically, politicians.
Cryptocurrency prices rose after the November election, partly because people believed that Washington would be positive about cryptocurrencies.So far, this is indeed the case.In the 100 days since the Trump administration took office, we have seen:
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The United States establishes strategic Bitcoin reserves and currently holds nearly 200,000 BTC
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White House cited digital assets as a “national priority”
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US SEC withdraws nearly all cryptocurrency-related boring lawsuits
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The US SEC revokes SAB 121 (a set of strict cryptocurrency accounting rules) and allows more banks and broker-dealers to operate in the field
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Operation Chachoke 2.0 ended, which cuts off services from cryptocurrency companies and traditional banks
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Cryptocurrency advocate Paul Atkins appointed as new chairman of the US SEC
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Famous venture capitalist David Sacks is appointed as “crypto and artificial intelligence czar” by the White House
This is an incredible list.However……
We need legislation to consolidate our progress
The common point of the above measures is that they all come from the White House.This means they are easily overturned by future governments.
To promote the development of cryptocurrencies, we need Congress to pass legislation that will incorporate the progress of cryptocurrencies into the legal framework.The passage of at least one cryptocurrency bill in Congress would show that Democrats and Republicans can agree on cryptocurrency issues and make it harder for future regimes to stop cryptocurrencies from progressing.
Entering this year, I thought this was a sure win.Specifically, I expect Congress to quickly pass stablecoin legislation, paving a solid regulatory channel for the world’s largest financial institutions to enter the stablecoin market.
After all, stablecoins provide something for everyone:
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For cryptocurrencies, they broaden market access.
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For Wall Street, they created a new profit center.
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For Washington, they are a huge buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds and a tool to expand the dollar’s global dominance.
Win, win, win, win, win three wins.
Until recently, we were still moving towards victory.
In mid-March, the Senate Banking Committee passed a leading stablecoin bill called the GENIUS Act with 18 votes in favor and 6 votes against.In this vote, five Democratic members crossed partisan boundaries and supported the bill.Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) even expressed support.
But last weekend, nine Democrats — including four of the five Democrats who voted for the bill on the banking committee, and Schumer himself — withdrew their support for the bill.They said the bill was inadequate in terms of anti-money laundering and protections such as “know your customers” (AML/KYC).
This shift in attitude reflects changes in Washington’s political environment.The revised version of the bill is actually harder than the version passed by the AML/KYC and others, indicating that the shift in the Democratic attitude is out of no substantive concerns as much as it isRelated to the decline in President Trump’s approval rating and growing discussions over his cryptocurrency-related conflicts of interest.
Politics are already very chaotic.But many times, it is even more chaotic than it should be.
Too little help: The power of the crypto industry is lobbying to combine stablecoin legislation with broader market structure legislation to create a massive and beautiful crypto bill.
This is simply the opposite of a good thing.Market structure legislation is crucial to the long-term future of cryptocurrencies, but confusing various factors will make the passage of any bill more difficult.
What will happen next
I think the stablecoin billfinalWill be passed.The benefits of stablecoins to the United States, the dollar, businessmen, entrepreneurs, and others are so obvious that trivial political struggles will not hinder their progress.
At least I hope so.
The next few days and weeks will be challenging.If legislation fails, this summer can be challenging for cryptocurrencies.But if Washington can work together, I think the bull market will be unstoppable.
Anyway, please follow Washington.
