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Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise; Compiled by: BitChain Vision
The best cryptocurrency investments offer two paths to profit.
My favorite cryptocurrency investments all give me double profit opportunities.Take Bitcoin for example.
When I bought Bitcoin, I actually made two bets:
1. The global “value storage” market will continue to expand.
2. Bitcoin’s share of this market will continue to increase.
As long as one of them comes true, I can make a good profit.
Nowadays,The global store of value market is approximately US$27.5 trillion: gold accounts for US$25 trillion and Bitcoin accounts for US$2.5 trillion.(You may think that assets such as silver, art, Ethereum, and real estate also belong to this market, but to simplify the analysis of this article, they are not included in the discussion for the time being.)
If the value storage market grows (for example, doubles from $27.5 trillion to $55 trillion), as long as Bitcoin maintains its current 9% market share, its value will also double..
Likewise,Even if the market size remains the same, if Bitcoin’s market share doubles to 18%, its price will double.
A common mistake many investors make is to focus too much on whether Bitcoin can capture market share, while ignoring the growth potential of the market itself.In the past 20 years, the global value storage market has grown tenfold, from less than US$3 trillion in 2005 to US$27.5 trillion today.As long as this trend repeats, Bitcoin’s value is expected to increase another 10 times——In my opinion, this goal is completely feasible.
If Bitcoin can increase its market share at the same time, the benefits will be superimposed and amplified.If the market size increases 10 times and Bitcoin eventually equals gold (i.e. captures 50% of the market share, which I think is a reasonable scenario in the next 20 years), then each Bitcoin will be worth $6.5 million.
I’m not claiming this will happen, but that’s part of the beauty of Double Bet.
What about Solana?
When I invested in Solana, I was also making a double bet:
1. The stablecoin and asset tokenization infrastructure market will continue to grow;
2. Solana’s share of this market will continue to increase.
Both of these bets have great potential, in my opinion.
At present, there are many excellent Layer 1 blockchains laying out stablecoins and asset tokenization infrastructure markets.Ethereum is the industry leader, accounting for the largest share in stablecoin issuance, transaction volume, and fund tokenization; Tron, Solana, and BNB chains are the main competitors in the stablecoin market.The combined market value of these assets is $768 billion.
Although Solana is a significant player in the market, its current market capitalization of $107 billion is relatively small, accounting for only 14% of the overall market – which is the core reason why it is suitable for double bets..
I am confident in the growth of the stablecoin and asset tokenization infrastructure market.I think people severely underestimate how much these technologies will reshape the market.Over time, I expect that almost all payments will be made through stablecoins and almost all assets will be tokenized.The blockchain that drives this growth will surely have extremely high value.It is not difficult to imagine that the size of this market is expected to increase by 10 times or more.
I am equally optimistic about Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other blockchains, but I also fully recognize Solana’s potential to capture a larger market share.It has high-speed, easy-to-use technology, backed by high-quality community support that adheres to the concept of “rapid iteration”.As a newer asset, Solana is still playing catch-up with its peers when it comes to acquiring institutional authorization, but it is making clear progress: Just this week, Western Union chose Solana as the underlying blockchain when it announced it would issue a stablecoin.
If my judgment is correct,The dual benefits of expanding market scale and increasing market share will bring explosive growth to Solana——Just like the development path of Bitcoin.
Investing in cryptocurrencies requires humility and awe.Even the most senior experts cannot accurately predict future trends.But if you can get two high-certainty bets with one investment, you will undoubtedly greatly increase the probability of profit. This is the charm of cryptocurrency investment.
