jakiro
Author: Divine Grace
Gold has shown its sword, and Bitcoin is quietly unsheathing.
When gold stands at a high of $4,000, the cumulative increase this year reaches54%At this time, the market finally realized that this time was different.This asset, known as the “King of Safe Havens,” has increased more than traditional high-risk assets such as the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.
Gold’s abnormal performance is not an isolated incident, but the prelude to a global capital transfer.When safe-haven versus risky assetsHit new highs together, discerning people have already smelled the flavor of system reconstruction.
Fiat currency credit is undergoing a stress test.Global central banks have been net buying gold for 18 consecutive quarters, accumulating more than 6,000 tons.This is no accident, but a quiet de-dollarization movement.When central banks’ confidence in the US dollar is shaken, gold becomes a new safe haven.
At the same time, an asset revaluation is going on quietly.The trend correlation between gold and Bitcoin, the “non-sovereign asset” brothers, has climbed to the range of 0.4-0.6.When gold hits new highs, the valuation logic of scarce assets is strengthening across the market.
Compared to gold’s 54% gain, Bitcoin has31%The rate of return is clearly lagging behind.But history tells us that Bitcoin may be late to make up for its gains, but it is never absent.
Gold moves: Why are safe-haven assets so crazy?
Gold broke through $4,000. Behind this landmark event was the result of the combined action of multiple forces.The purchasing power of legal currency continues to declineIt has become the fundamental support for gold’s long-term bullish trend.
As the U.S. dollar index weakens, inflation remains stubborn and expectations of interest rate cuts by global central banks increase, investors are turning to gold, an “anti-inflation asset.”Gold’s dazzling performance is not an isolated case, but an inevitable product of the current macro environment.
What is more worthy of attention is thatCentral bank gold purchases have transformed from individual behavior into a global trend.China, Russia, India, Türkiye and other countries continue to increase their gold reserves, which reflects a vote of no confidence in the current international monetary system.
When gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, shows a return rate that exceeds that of risky assets, it indicates that the global financial system may be entering a credit revaluation period.Gold is now not only a safe haven, but also a referendum on the global credit system.
Bitcoin lags: Is the rally imminent?
While gold is soaring, Bitcoin’s 31% gain this year has clearly lagged behind.This gap is unusual, especially given the growing correlation between the two assets.
Gold and Bitcoin are both “non-sovereign assets”, the logic of shared scarcity value storage.When the price of gold hits new highs, it actually opens a valuation ceiling for Bitcoin.
Historical data shows thatBitcoin outperforms gold over the long term.This trend will not change due to short-term fluctuations.The current lag of Bitcoin relative to gold and the global M2 money supply is forming a “compression spring effect.”
As the fourth quarter approaches, Bitcoin’s traditionally strong season is about to begin.The increase of more than 7% since October may be just a preview.In the tide of capital rotation from “credit assets” to “scarce assets”, Bitcoin will surely usher in its own moment of glory.
The Great Global Capital Rotation: From Credit Assets to Scarce Assets
The most striking feature of the current market is thatRisk assets and safe-haven assets rise together, behind this phenomenon that goes against traditional financial common sense is that global capital is being redistributed.
The three combined factors of geopolitical crisis, intensified trade barriers, and credit currency depreciation have forced investors to seek safe havens outside the traditional system.Gold and Bitcoin represent “non-sovereign assets”, and jointly benefit from this trend.
Global capital is rotating from “credit assets” to “scarce assets”.The essence of this rotation is a revaluation of the existing financial system., investors voted with their feet to express concerns about the over-issuance of legal currency and over-expansion of sovereign credit.
Although Bitcoin is temporarily lagging behind gold, the correlation between the two trends indicates the inevitability of subsequent compensatory gains.When gold opens up valuation space for scarce assets, Bitcoin will gain the favor of capital with its better liquidity and divisibility.
Fourth Quarter Outlook: Bitcoin’s Breakout Moment?
The fourth quarter has always been a period of strong performance for Bitcoin, and historical seasonal patterns cannot be ignored.October starts with 7% increaseMaybe it’s just a warm-up.
From a macro level, the global liquidity environment is increasingly favorable to Bitcoin.Expectations for Fed rate cut increase, the possibility of global central banks returning to the easing track increases, which will provide liquidity support for all scarce assets.What’s more,Bitcoin’s discount to gold is unlikely to be maintained for long.
When gold breaks through the psychological mark of $4,000, Bitcoin is still far below its historical high, and this gap will attract an influx of arbitrage funds.As traditional institutional investors continue to increase their allocation to digital assets, the depth and breadth of the Bitcoin market are not what they used to be.Once funds begin to rotate, Bitcoin’s performance is likely to surpass that of gold, reappearing the historical law of “the strong will always be strong.”
In the next few years, we will witness a global capital migration.Gold’s strength has pointed the way——Capital is looking for safe havens outside the sovereign credit system.
As more institutional investors allocate gold and Bitcoin simultaneously, the correlation between the two may further strengthen.Bitcoin’s Store of Value Narrativewill be finally confirmed in this round of macro turmoil.
When the mainstream world finally understands the signal flare of gold, smart capital has already begun to deploy Bitcoin.Gold’s breakout of $4,000 is just the beginning, and Bitcoin’s breakout moment is coming.
