jakiro
On October 28, Strategy was downgraded to junk status by S&P, causing its stock price to fall by more than 15% in three trading days and dragging down the entire DAT sector.What is even more alarming is that the continued decline of DAT company mNAV has seriously weakened its financing ability.Blockworks data shows that DAT’s buying volume this week was only US$342 million, a new low in the past five months.As the main growth engine of this bull market, if DAT companies continue to stall, the market may face pressure.
Although Strategy’s mNAV is as high as 1.25 and can still “replenish blood” through ATM financing, its stock price continues to weaken and its financial attributes are increasingly strengthening, putting it at risk of being eliminated from the Nasdaq 100 component evaluation in December.Strategy has received billions of dollars in passive inflows over the past year thanks to global index funds’ allocations to the Nasdaq 100.More importantly, whether Strategy can establish a systemically important position in the U.S. stock market will directly affect the further allocation intentions of long-term institutional investors such as sovereign wealth funds and pension funds.At this critical point, if Strategy is removed from the Nasdaq 100, its liquidity and financing capabilities will decline significantly, and the influence of the DAT camp in the U.S. stock market will plummet.
So the key question is: Will Strategy really be removed from the Nasdaq 100?Judging from the three admission criteria of the Nasdaq 100 Index, Strategy’s risk structure is very clear: its market capitalization ranking (consistently among the top 100) and index weight (approximately 0.37%, higher than the 0.1% threshold) have both met the standards.The only core risk currently lies in the increasingly obvious financialization tendency of its business.However, the decisive basis for judgment still lies in the official ICB industry classification – as long as the classification does not adjust it from the “technology” sector to the “financial” sector, Strategy will still meet the basic admission qualifications of the Nasdaq 100.Therefore, in the short to medium term, it is unlikely that Strategy will be kicked out of the Nasdaq 100.
In the past week, although the market has not completely escaped from the downturn, a key narrative switch is taking place: funds are gradually withdrawing from emotion-driven MEME currency speculation and instead investing in value targets with solid technical foundations and clear application prospects.
This change is particularly prominent in the following two areas:
1. AI Agent infrastructure represented by X402
This type of project builds the next generation infrastructure that supports decentralized business automation by deeply integrating the incentive model of blockchain, decentralized identity and autonomously running AI agents.Its fundamental breakthrough is to systematically activate the HTTP 402 protocol and embed payment capabilities into the bottom layer of the Internet, allowing machines to complete micropayment settlements independently without relying on traditional accounts or manual intervention.This means that the biggest role of the X402 protocol is to build a key basic payment layer for the upcoming AI Agent economy, enabling AI agents to independently discover and pay for required APIs, data or computing resources just like humans browsing the web.At present, representative projects such as VIRTUAL and PAYAI have emerged on this track, initially outlining the prototype of a machine-driven economy agreement.
2. Application of cryptography technology represented by ZK-SNARKs
This direction covers two key areas: First, the ZK Rollup expansion solution represented by ZKsync is undergoing rapid iterations. Its “Atlas” upgrade has pushed network throughput to new highs and achieved extremely low transaction fees, clearing performance obstacles for the large-scale popularization of decentralized applications; second, privacy coins represented by Zcash continue to optimize their anonymous architecture, and by introducing more efficient proof systems and cross-chain privacy solutions, they ensure transaction concealment while improving usability.At the same time, industry leaders including Buterin have frequently spoken out recently, actively exploring new protocol architectures that can support extremely fast ZK proofs, and pushing the boundaries of this technology route from a theoretical level.These developments jointly confirm that ZK technology has not only moved from theory to engineering practice, but also demonstrated disruptive potential in the three key dimensions of performance, cost and privacy, further consolidating the market’s consensus on its long-term value.
The reshuffling of Binance’s gain list since last week is confirmation of the switch in market style: it signals that emotional speculation that lacks fundamental support is systematically ebbing, and value logic based on technological innovation and practical applications is once again becoming the dominant force in market funds.This shift indicates that the blockchain industry may be entering a healthier and more sustainable development stage, laying the foundation for the next growth cycle driven by real demand.
Against the background of the current downturn in the crypto market, more and more KOLs and investment institutions have expressed highly consistent expectations that the market will enter a bear market stage.Even glassnode, an analytical institution that has always been cautious about price forecasts, has changed its stance. It believes that after Bitcoin loses the key support level of $113,000, it is likely that Bitcoin will further drop to around $88,000.
However, historical experience shows that collective pessimism in the market is often a precursor to a market reversal.While most investors are dominated by panic, real value opportunities are quietly emerging.For builders who focus on the long term, this is a critical moment to maintain strategic focus and lay out core tracks.
