jakiro
Author: CryptoCompound, Compiler: Shaw Bitcoin Vision
Every cryptocurrency bull market has a theme.The theme of 2017 was speculation, the theme of 2021 is innovation, and the theme of 2025 may be regulation.
After a decade of blurred lines and mixed signals, global regulators are finally starting toFrom ambiguity to architectural clarity.The discussion that once revolved around “will they ban?” is turning to “how to scale safely?”
This shift from uncertainty to clearly defined structures creates a solid foundation for the next wave of multi-trillion dollar institutional adoption.
Regulatory clarity won’t kill markets.It would legitimize the market.
Why regulatory clarity is the real catalyst
Cryptocurrency markets rise and fall depending onObtaining funds— and much of that funding is still tied up by regulatory barriers.Pension funds, insurance companies and sovereign wealth funds cannot easily “jump in”.They must operate within an established framework: which assets are securities, who can have custody of assets, how disclosures are made, and which exchanges meet compliance standards.
When regulations change, so do the eligibility criteria.When eligibility conditions change, funds flow.
Therefore, the biggest factor driving the long-term value growth of cryptocurrencies is not just another halving cycle or a new Layer-2 protocol.It’s about regulatory maturity — the process of integrating cryptocurrencies into the formal financial system without losing their core innovation.
America: From law enforcement to infrastructure
For years, the United States has been the most influential and frustrating jurisdiction in the cryptocurrency space.But this situation has begun to change.
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Coordination between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
After a decade of jurisdictional battles, the two agencies have launched a coordinated effort to clarify how spot cryptocurrency products can be traded.This is a real first step towards harmonization – something that was once politically unthinkable. -
Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) Effect.
The spot Ethereum ETF was approved in 2024, breaking the unique psychological barrier of Bitcoin.A few months later, the Solana ETF was launched, backed by real trading volumes, custody infrastructure and derivatives trading history.
Once a crypto asset is included in an ETF, it becomes a legitimate asset class overnight.Pension fund managers can buy it, financial advisors can allocate it, and broker-dealers can recommend it.This form of packaging permanently changed the buyer demographic.
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Stablecoin legislation is introduced.
The Payment Stablecoins Act and its subsequent draft in 2025 are laying the foundation for a standardized framework for reserves, custody and transparency.Stablecoins are the link between cryptocurrencies and the traditional economy – once regulated, they will become a bridge rather than a threat.
American inspiration:
If the Bitcoin ETF is a proof of concept, then the Ethereum and Solana ETFs are templates.In the next year, we need to pay attention to which assets can develop corresponding infrastructure, monitoring sharing mechanisms and custody capabilities to qualify for packaging as ETFs.These are the tokens that can attract institutional money—not short-lived “meme coins,” but regulated underlying assets.
EU: MiCA turns theory into law
European Markets in Crypto-Assets Act (MiCA) FrameworkIt is now in effect and will be fully implemented by 2025.This is the first comprehensive, cross-regional digital asset regulatory framework that is redefining the meaning of “compliance.”
MiCA requires all cryptocurrency service providers (CASPs) to meet strict standards, including capital adequacy, risk management, governance, information disclosure and custody agreements.It is the equivalent of a banking license in the cryptocurrency space – once licensed, one can operate within the EU.
This is a big win for the organization.This means they can engage in digital asset business within a predictable framework, eliminating the need to guess which jurisdiction is “safe”.
For start-ups, this is a screening mechanism.Compliant companies can obtain funding and partners, while non-compliant companies will be eliminated.
Lessons from the European Union:
MiCA is turning regulation into a barrier to competition.MiCA-certified exchanges, brokers and custodians will dominate liquidity in Europe.For investors, this means identifying early on which platforms and tokens comply with this regulatory regime – because once banks start accepting them, liquidity will quickly pool.
UK: Building a layer of trust
UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and HM TreasuryA slower, more cautious approach was taken – but no less crucial.
FCA’s latest round of consultation draft isStablecoin issuers and custodial services set strict guidelines, ensuring customer isolation and prudent regulatory measures.At the same time, the British Treasury hinted that stablecoins will not be included in the core payment network until a better regulatory mechanism is established.
While not as high-profile as US ETF news, at the heart of the UK regulatory process isinstitutional trust.Once these safeguards are fully in place, London is expected to become an important center for custody, derivatives and stablecoin settlement.
British inspiration:
Investors should focus on companies that comply early – FCA-compliant custodians, fintechs and exchanges will have priority for banking partnerships and institutional inflows.
Singapore: precise regulator
If the United States responds passively and Europe responds comprehensively and thoughtfully, then Singapore takes precise measures.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)’s licensing approval standards for digital asset companies are among the highest in the world.Only companies with robust anti-money laundering, risk management and operational control mechanisms have a chance of gaining approval.
Singapore intends to pursue this high standard as a design goal—it hopesBecome the clearing center for global trusted digital finance, not the next offshore casino.
MAS is finalizing a stablecoin framework limited to the Singapore dollar and some G10 currencies.In practice, this means fewer issuers but more trust.
Singapore’s inspiration:
With fewer participants, confidence increases.Investors should view Singapore-licensed platforms as a safe haven for long-term capital allocation in Asia.
Six major regulatory triggers to pay attention to
The following are specific key nodes that may trigger market volatility and opportunities in the next two quarters:
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US New Spot ETF
In addition to BTC, ETH and SOL, there are new spot cryptocurrency ETFs – focusing on applications related to the L2 ecosystem or staking yields. -
Stablecoin bill makes progress in U.S. Congress.
The version approved by the US Congress will greatly improve capital efficiency in the decentralized finance (DeFi) field. -
The first European CASPs to obtain MiCA license.
Early movers are expected to command a premium – and liquidity will be concentrated around them. -
The UK FCA has finally published its custody rules.
This could open the door for cryptocurrency-native companies to partner with traditional banks. -
Singapore MAS issues license announcement.
Any major U.S. or EU companies that get approval will be a market signal. -
Unified guidance across U.S. agencies.
A coordinated approach by the SEC and CFTC will immediately increase risk premiums across the industry.
Each such event means regulatory uncertainty is removed – and with it comes lower volatility and greater institutional liquidity.
Turn rules into revenue
So how can investors truly take advantage of regulatory measures instead of just “hoping for regulatory clarity”?
1. Hold qualifying assets.
Cryptocurrencies with clear classification and custody support (such as BTC, ETH, SOL) will continue to attract ETF demand.Every time a new ETF is launched, the buyer base will expand.
2. Infrastructure compliance.
Exchanges, wallets and brokers that receive MiCA or FCA approval are effectively gaining regulatory monopoly status.Investing in the stocks of these companies may result in outperformance.
3. Treat stablecoins as a revenue channel.
Once regulated, high-quality stablecoins will evolve from entry tokens into institutional income vehicles — similar to money market funds.This is crucial to the popularity of DeFi.
4. Watch for volatility to narrow.
Each market regulatory clarity tightens spreads and reduces uncertainty.Take advantage of this and go long volatility ahead of the announcement and gradually reduce your holdings after the announcement.
5. Think globally, think locally.
Different regions are at different stages of development.Europe leads in regulation, the US leads in liquidity, and Asia leads in innovation.Diversifying by jurisdiction is as important as diversifying by asset class.
Possible scenarios for 2026
Bull market scenario (40%):
The coverage of U.S. spot ETFs has been expanded beyond major assets; MiCA license approval has been accelerated; laws related to stablecoins have been passed; and the adoption rate among institutional investors has surged.
result: Higher participation, higher valuations, lower volatility.
Base case (45%):
Transparency is gradually increasing; ETF growth is slow; MiCA promotion is uneven; the stablecoin bill is delayed.
result: Some participants benefit; the gap between regulated and unregulated participants widens.
Bear market scenario (15%):
Political gridlock, new enforcement actions, or delays in policy implementation.
result: Short-term selling, long-term buying opportunity.
Summary
For the first time in the history of cryptocurrencies, regulationNo longer an enemy, but the key to unlocking.
Every new rule, framework or license reduces uncertainty and expands access.Each clear regulation brings cryptocurrencies closer to becoming a core global asset class.
The next bull market will reward not only those investors who got in early, but also those who were prepared: those who understand how the regulatory landscape is being shaped and plan their moves before other investors follow suit.
