jakiro
Author: 100y.eth, Compiler: Saoirse
core points
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In the cryptocurrency industry, most new concepts will go through three stages: “hype, infrastructure construction, and application popularization.” However, most concepts cannot successfully transition from the hype stage to the infrastructure stage, and eventually lose market attention.
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x402 is an artificial intelligence (AI) agent payment protocol developed by Coinbase, which allows AI agents to complete payments and obtain paid resources independently through the blockchain without manual intervention.
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Judging from the recent surge in the price of x402-related tokens, the protocol has entered the hype stage; but unlike other encryption concepts, giants such as Cloudflare, Google Cloud, and Anthropic are actively adopting x402, and its infrastructure construction phase is advancing rapidly.
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Considering the potential of intelligent commerce, x402 is likely to enter the application stage, but the bottleneck lies in the changes in consumer psychology and trust systems.Accenture data shows that the biggest obstacle to the large-scale application of intelligent commerce is that consumers do not trust AI agents.
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However, Gartner predicts that by 2030, the transaction volume led by AI agents will reach 30 trillion US dollars, and intelligent commerce will become an inevitable huge market in the future.By then, the blockchain industry will find the second global “product-market fit (PMF)” through x402 after stablecoins.
Hype, Infrastructure and Application Cycles
A new concept of “survival test”
The cryptocurrency industry is changing rapidly. The rise and fall cycle of new concepts often takes less than a few months, and the degree of concentration and dissipation of attention is far greater than that of other industries.From the perspective of general trends, popular concepts such as NFT, games, metaverse, and modular blockchain have all experienced this pattern; from the perspective of small-scale cases, the recent “predictive governance (Futarchy)” is a typical example – it rose briefly and then quickly faded out of the market.
As new concepts emerge in an endless stream in the encryption industry, multiple obstacles need to be overcome in order for a concept to be truly “applied.”I summarize this process into three stages:
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Hype Phase: The period when a new concept first gains widespread attention.At this stage, even existing projects that are only weakly related to the concept, newly launched small projects, and even related Meme coins often see prices skyrocket by tens or even hundreds of percent.If the concept successfully transitions to the next stage, the price may remain stable; but in most cases, the price plummets within weeks or months, and the project disappears.
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Infrastructure stage: After the potential and practicality of the new concept have been verified, developers will begin to develop products of practical value based on the concept.Product development takes a long time (anywhere from a few months to more than a year), so vague, weak concepts often die at this stage.But if it is a truly meaningful concept, it will maintain stable attention and create practical application scenarios at this stage, and the entire field will gradually develop and grow.
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Application stage: Concepts that can reach this stage are very rare!In the crypto space, only a few concepts such as automated market makers (AMMs), central limit order books (CLOBs), lending protocols, pledge-related protocols, and stablecoins have reached this stage.The concept entering the application stage has verified its “product-market fit (PMF)”, and new protocols will continue to emerge in the future, while attracting a large number of users to actively participate.
Typical cases in the encryption industry
So, what is the current stage of the hot topics that have attracted much attention on crypto social platforms recently?
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Predictive governance (Futarchy): As mentioned above, predictive governance entered the hype stage due to Vitalik’s mention, and then the popularity subsided. Recently, it briefly gained popularity again through Solana’s ICO platform, but fell out of favor again in just a few weeks.The core reason is that predictive governance involves complex governance systems, and it is difficult to achieve large-scale application without the transformation of multi-generational concepts in human society.
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Decentralized energy: Decentralized energy entered the hype stage last year as many companies received first-tier venture capital investment.Recently, Daylight company received another US$75 million investment from two institutions, Framework and a16zcrypto, which briefly ignited market enthusiasm, but the attention did not last.Fundamentally, decentralized energy is a field that requires physical infrastructure support, and its infrastructure construction phase will inevitably take a long time.
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Robotics (Crypto x Robotics): The development path of robotics is similar to the above case.When the concept of “encryption + AI” is at its peak, the “encryption + robot” project Openmind raised US$20 million in funding from Pantera and other institutions, igniting the market’s interest in the field of robotics.Since then, the prices of many small and medium-sized projects and Meme coins have skyrocketed, but it will still take time to enter the application stage.However, in view of the huge potential of the “encryption + robot” concept, many developers, including Openmind, are actively promoting product development.
From these cases, it can be seen that in the encryption industry, it is extremely difficult for a new concept to go from “birth” to “application”.
However, the x402 protocol, which has recently become so popular on encrypted social platforms, seems to be expected to quickly break through this “curse” and successfully enter the application stage.So, what is so special about x402?
Can the x402 protocol succeed?
x402 protocol overview
The x402 protocol is an open payment protocol developed by Coinbase. Its core function is to allow AI agents to complete payments and transactions independently without human intervention.Through x402, AI agents can use stable coins to pay for services on multiple blockchain networks, and have the advantage of “instant settlement” without having to go through complicated processes such as account registration, subscription activation, and API key configuration.
HTTP 402 is a network status code that indicates “payment required”, but it has rarely been actually used for a long time.The x402 protocol makes use of this status code: when the AI agent sends an API request, the server will return an HTTP 402 status code, prompting “A fee is required to continue.” After the AI agent recognizes this prompt, it will automatically pay the corresponding fee in stable currency.The specific process is as follows:
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When an AI agent attempts to access paid services such as news, API interfaces, and data, the server will return the “HTTP 402 Payment Required” status code.The response not only contains a “payment required” prompt, but also comes with key information such as payment method, payment amount, and payee’s wallet address.
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The AI agent generates a transaction of the corresponding amount based on the information provided by the server, adds a digital signature and sends it back to the server.
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The server passes the transaction to the “Facilitator”, who verifies the validity of the payment and completes transaction processing on the blockchain.
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After the payment is completed, the server will open access to the paid service to the AI agent.
The value of x402 goes far beyond “providing a payment standard for AI agents”.Because payment is based on blockchain stablecoins, it realizes the “micropayment” function that was difficult to achieve in the past – AI agents can call APIs or pay for services in real time based on actual usage; at the same time, human users can also bypass complex steps such as API key management and account registration and directly obtain content through micropayments.
Has entered the hype stage
The x402 protocol was launched in May 2025 and received only moderate initial attention.But after being mentioned in a16z’s “State of Cryptocurrency 2025: The Year Cryptocurrency Goes Mainstream” report, the protocol’s popularity surged.Gartner predicts that the intelligent commerce market will reach US$30 trillion by 2030, while a16z pointed out that x402 is expected to become the core payment channel for AI intelligent agents.
The most direct signal that x402 has entered the hype stage is the skyrocketing price of related tokens.For example, the token $VIRTUAL, which rises whenever the concept of “AI agents” heats up, has risen by 40% in just two days; other related tokens have also risen sharply, and the specific trends are shown in the chart below.
On the surface, x402 appears to be no different from other “hype” crypto concepts—empty, superficial, and driven entirely by market enthusiasm.In fact, many new crypto concepts do follow this path: small projects and meme coins quickly go dormant after their prices skyrocket.
However, there are essential differences between x402 and these concepts: first, “AI intelligent agent payment” is not only highly relevant in the encryption field, but also has practical value in the entire AI industry, and is a “potential” theme; second, many Web2 companies are actively paying attention to and adopting x402.These factors mean that x402 may not stay in the hype stage for long, but quickly transition to the infrastructure construction stage.
The infrastructure construction phase is in progress
Currently, the x402 protocol is in both the “hype stage” and the “infrastructure stage”.In fact, before entering the hype stage, a large number of Web2 and Web3 companies have begun to build infrastructure for x402 and integrate it into their own services.Therefore, it is more accurate to say that x402 starts from the “infrastructure stage”.
Interestingly, unlike typical encryption concepts, x402 has attracted the attention of many Web2 technology giants, and these enterprises have begun to actually adopt the protocol.
Cloudflare
Cloudflare is a company that provides Internet infrastructure and security solutions. It has recently launched services such as “Agents SDK” (to help developers quickly create and deploy AI agents) and “Workers AI” (AI model inference running environment).
Cloudflare and Coinbase jointly launched the “x402 Foundation” and are extremely active in the x402 ecosystem.Its “Agents SDK” service has integrated the x402 protocol, allowing AI agents to easily complete payments over the Internet.
It is worth noting that Cloudflare also recently launched the US dollar stable currency “NET Dollar” designed specifically for AI agents.In the future, AI agents developed based on the “Agents SDK” can carry out intelligent business activities with NET Dollar through the x402 protocol.
Vercel
Vercel is a cloud platform company that helps developers quickly build and deploy web applications.Recently, Vercel has launched services such as “Vercel AI SDK” and “Vercel MCP” – the former facilitates developers to build and deploy AI agents, and the latter supports access to projects through the MCP interface.In September 2025, Vercel released the x402-mcp tool, which allows AI agents to automatically complete payments with the help of x402 when accessing paid APIs or resources through MCP.
Google Cloud
Google Cloud has previously launched the A2A protocol (AI Inter-Agent Communication and Cooperation Protocol), which contains an extension module called “AP2 (Agent Payment Protocol)” to support autonomous payment by AI agents.The x402 protocol has been integrated into the system and serves as a “payment engine” to help AI agents complete actual transactions.
Anthropic
Anthropic is a well-known AI company that has developed the Claude Large Language Model (LLM), through which users can build AI agent services.In addition, Anthropic also launched an open source standard called “MCP” – this protocol defines the rules for AI models to access external tools and data.Currently, Claude MCP supports the x402 protocol, which means that Claude can automatically complete payments when accessing paid MCP tools.
Visa
As the world’s largest credit card payment network, Visa recently announced that it will jointly develop a “Trusted Proxy Protocol” with Cloudflare.This protocol can verify the credibility of AI requests in agent commerce and supports payment through the x402 protocol.
other participants
According to the Coinbase announcement, Circle, AWS and other companies are also working with the x402 protocol.
In addition to enterprise and protocol-level support, developer-oriented tools are also gradually emerging, such as x402scan.This browser tool can visually display servers, transaction records and payment processes using x402, helping users clearly understand “which services go through which coordinators and on which networks payment is completed.”As the x402 ecosystem continues to expand, it is expected that more companies and tools will join in, further enriching the ecosystem.
Can x402 enter the application stage?
There is still a gap between the application stage and
Judging from the skyrocketing prices of related tokens and the adoption by giants, x402 has covered both the “hype stage” and the “infrastructure stage”.But for x402, the key question is: can it successfully enter the “application stage”?
So far, about 55,000 buyers have initiated 879,000 transactions to 1,000 sellers, according to x402scan.The number of transactions alone seems considerable, but the total transaction value is only about US$923,000. This scale shows that x402 is still far from the “application stage”.
Key conditions for entering the application stage
What conditions must be met for x402 to enter the application stage?The most frequently mentioned core factors are “consumer psychology” and “trust system.”Even practitioners like me who have been paying attention to x402 for a long time can accept AI agents providing recommendations in business scenarios, but they still have concerns about completely handing over funds to AI agents for management.
Currently, even the most advanced large language models occasionally output error messages or unexpected results.From a psychological perspective, it is difficult for consumers to trust AI agents developed based on such models to handle payment transactions.In fact, a survey of financial institutions by Accenture showed that 87% of respondents believe that “customers do not trust AI payments” is a core problem; 78% of respondents are worried that “AI robots may make unauthorized payments or participate in fraud.”
The second key factor is the “current status of enterprise infrastructure.”According to Accenture data, 85% of financial institutions stated that their existing legacy systems cannot adapt to the needs of “large-scale intelligent payment”.Among them, “the lack of a system to deal with fraudulent transactions in intelligent payment” is one of the main obstacles that prevents the industry from entering the application stage.
To sum up, for x402 to enter the application stage, enterprises need to build an optimized system suitable for intelligent commerce and at the same time cultivate consumers’ trust in the system.But both infrastructure development and consumer psychology changes will take a long time – therefore, the process of x402 entering the application stage may take longer than expected.
What it means to the blockchain industry
Gartner predicts that AI agents will impact $30 trillion in procurement by 2030.Although the AI agent payment market is still in its early stages, the x402 protocol has shown the potential to “become an industry standard” – this can be confirmed by the adoption of x402 by technology giants such as Google, Anthropic, and Cloudflare to carry out AI agent payment services.
When the x402 ecological activity increases, what changes will the encryption market usher in?A very likely prediction is that the recent surge in x402-related tokens will be difficult to sustain in the long term.Since the rise of the “crypto + AI” field, this track has gradually developed into a concept with practical significance, and a number of innovative initiatives have emerged. However, looking back on history, the subsequent price performance of small project tokens and Meme coins that skyrocketed in the initial hype stage was mostly unsatisfactory.
The clear value x402 brings to the blockchain industry is that all AI agent payments will be completed on the blockchain network.Currently, most transactions occur on the Base network and a few on the Solana network; however, the x402 protocol follows the principle of “blockchain independence” from the beginning and can be adapted to any blockchain network.This means that as the x402 ecosystem expands, payment activities will no longer be limited to Base and Solana – but will cover more blockchain networks driven by supply and demand between buyers and sellers.
Intelligent commerce is an inevitable huge market in the future, and all payments will eventually be completed through the x402 protocol on the blockchain.By then, the blockchain industry will find the second global “product-market fit (PMF)” through x402 after stablecoins.
