Has Bitcoin’s four-year cycle really been broken?

The cryptocurrency industry seems to be breaking the traditional four-year cycle model.The institutional adoption of exchange-traded funds, the tokenization of real-world assets, and the evolution of stablecoin infrastructure are reshaping the operating logic of the entire market.

An analyst with the pseudonym Ignas pointed out in a report released on September 24 that the listing of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024 is a watershed meaning –Crypto ETFs lead all asset classes with net inflows of $34 billion since April.

These products have attracted the participation of pension funds, consulting agencies and commercial banks.Transform cryptocurrencies from retail speculative targets to institutional allocation assets alongside gold and Nasdaq indexes.

Currently, the scale of asset management of Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded US$150 billion, accounting for 6% of the total supply of BTC; the Ethereum ETF controls 5.6% of ETH circulation.

The general listing standard for commodity ETPs approved by the SEC in September has accelerated this trend and paved the way for fund declarations for assets such as Solana and XRP.

The report calls this transfer of ownership from retail investors to long-term institutional investors“Crypto Asset Rotation”.

When traditional cyclists sell out, institutional investors continue to absorb funds, pushing the cost benchmark upward and building a new price bottom.

ETFs have become the main purchasing channel for Bitcoin and Ethereum, fundamentally changing the supply conditions that drive the laws of historical cycles.

Stablecoins have gone beyond the scope of trading instruments and evolved to payment, lending and financial management functions..

The $30 billion real-world asset (RWA) market is a reflection of this expansion, with tokenized treasury bonds, credit and commodities building on-chain financial infrastructure.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently approved stablecoins as derivative collateral, and has opened up institutional application scenarios outside spot demand.

Pay-oriented blockchain projects such as Stripe’s Tempo and Tether’s Plasma drive stablecoins into the real economy, while digital asset Treasury (DAT) companies provide equity market portals for tokens that have not yet been approved for ETFs.

This mechanism not only provides exit liquidity for venture capital,Institutional funds are also introduced into the altcoin market.

RWA tokenization of benchmark interest rates through Treasury bonds and credit tools is building a real capital market on the chain.

BlackRock’s BUIDL and Franklin Templeton’s BENJI are like bridges, connecting trillions of traditional capital to crypto infrastructure.This allows the DeFi protocol to rely on legal collateral and lending markets to get rid of the simple speculative cycle.

This structural shift indicates that cryptocurrencies are transforming from cyclical speculative assets to permanent financial facilities.

However, as institutional capital prefers sustainable business models rather than purely narrative-driven, the differentiation of individual performance may replace the general rise.

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