jakiro
Author: Paul Veradittakit, Managing Partner at Pantera Capital; Compiled by Shaw Bitchain Vision
summary
-
Cryptocurrency companies have raised more than $16 billion in more than 100 M&A deals so far this year, putting the industry on track to set a new record and exceed the total transaction value in 2024.
-
This cycle is fundamentally stronger, thanks to a clearer U.S. regulatory policy and a growing global trend.
-
The wave of strategic mergers and acquisitions and initial public offerings (IPOs) will continue into the next cycle.
In 2025, record M&A and IPO activities are reshaping and enhancing the cryptocurrency space.This has driven a massive influx of new capital, institutional investors, builders and users, driving blockchain innovation and adoption.This is a common model in other major technological changes, that is, it will only usher in explosive growth after decades of construction.While the rise of AI is thanks to decades of infrastructure investment, cryptocurrencies are maturing much faster.It is thanks to more advanced technology architectures that can accelerate development with better tools, which is why the internal motivation of the current market is fundamentally different from previous cycles, driven more by strategic integration than speculation.
Momentum is accelerating: Why is this cycle different?
The cryptocurrency market is showing a sine wave-like trend, with ups and downs.Despite a slowdown in the venture capital sector, markets are still optimistic due to regulatory favorable factors, crypto-friendly governments, strong transaction flows, and companies such as Robinhood doubled their bets on cryptocurrencies and the deep integration of cryptocurrencies with adjacent verticals.Since peaking in 2022, capital investment has dropped sharply in 2023, recovered in 2024 and accelerated significantly in 2025.There were 31 transactions in the second quarter of 2025 alone with growth driven by late-stage financing such as IPOs, M&A and debt financing.The cryptocurrency market has attracted $16.1 billion in funding so far this year, however, cryptocurrency venture capital (VC) is like traditional VCs, with funds concentrated in the hands of a few funds.When funds are concentrated, you usually see a larger amount of investment, but the overall number of transactions is reduced.This reflects that many cryptocurrency companies are moving towards growth companies, and also shows that competition in the financing environment is more intense than ever before, both founders and investors.
The gathering of multiple forces makes this cycle unique.Token prices are rebounding, new products are being launched, and founders are more confident in investing in the industry, with regulatory benefits providing clarity for stablecoins and digital assets, all of which injecting funds into the field.Regulatory uncertainty has created friction between innovators and the Web3 sector over the years due to concerns about possible punishment.With the Trump administration’s crypto-friendly attitude, we have witnessed the emergence of the cornerstones that drive on-chain adoption through legislation, namely the Genius Act and the Clear Act.While we cannot say exactly how these bills will affect the distant future, it is certain that these discussions and actions will reduce hesitation about investment in the field in terms of intelligence and financial aspects.In addition, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in November, which will prompt more funds to flow into risky assets, and the Digital Assets Reserve (DAT) locks funds into long-term assets.Investors’ awareness of risk aversion has gradually weakened, thus forming more active capital flows.
Investment allocation has changed, and one-third of the funds have flowed to “bottom-up” opportunities such as perpetual contracts, token issuance platforms, forecasting markets, and new DeFi.The remaining two-thirds are targeting “top-down” areas, including DATs, real-world assets (RWAs), exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and companies entering the open market.These open market assets dominate this cycle, which in turn gives the wider public better access to crypto assets, which is a very healthy sign for the industry.This balance shows that the market is maturing, focusing on innovation and integration with traditional finance.
The blueprint for crypto legislation needs to be formulated in the short term, and given the current government’s support for cryptocurrencies, this window exists before the 2026 midterm elections.The DeFi Education Fund aims to protect software developers, and has submitted a response to the enquiry on information about the digital asset market structure to the Senate Banking Committee and recently released a draft discussion on the Responsible Financial Innovation Act of 2025.The 2025 Wyoming Blockchain Symposium held last week focused on digital asset regulation, highlighting the urgency of the United States to establish clear crypto regulations and the need to balance market structures.Members of this administration attended the workshop to promote forward-looking regulation.Entering the first quarter of 2026, we can expect an unprecedented, stronger regulatory base, especially when time is tight.
Token listing and IPO market reopen
In 2025, the number of tokens listed decreased, and fewer profits in new tokens were achieved, which brought downward pressure on trading flows.Projects that rely on token offerings find it harder to get funds without market appeal.In contrast, the IPO window has been reopened. As of mid-June 2025, 95 companies have been listed in the United States, raising $15.6 billion, an increase of 30% over 2024.Cryptocurrency-related IPOs, including Circle and BitGo, led the trend, with investors starting to invest their money in crypto stocks rather than tokens.Circle was listed on June 5, 2025 and priced at $31 per share, rising to $233 by mid-July, with a return of more than 5 times and a market value of $44.98 billion.Recently, Figure and Bullish have also been successfully listed, with Bullish becoming the first company to raise $1.15 billion through stablecoins.Cryptocurrency companies are now focusing more on revenue and growth than speculative token issuance.Cryptocurrency IPOs and other “top-down” operational booms are attracting traditional investors through a stable and revenue-oriented business model rather than volatile cryptocurrencies themselves.This is just the beginning of an IPO, and there are more projects waiting in line for listing in the coming months.
Acquisitions and industry maturation
2024 was a record year for mergers and acquisitions, with more than 100 mergers and acquisitions totaling $1.73 billion, while the number of deals in 2025 is expected to exceed 2024.From January to July this year, the number of transactions has reached 76, with a total amount of US$6.23 billion, 3.6 times the total transaction volume in 2024. At the current rate, the number of transactions for the whole year is expected to reach 130.The strong momentum in 2025 shows more about the natural maturity of the industry than release pent-up demand.Strategic acquisitions like Robinhood’s acquisition of Bitstamp show that established companies are building an integrated platform.Robinhood’s multi-billion dollar bet on cryptocurrency future further strengthens the credibility of the entire ecosystem, with its cryptocurrency revenue growing 98% year-on-year to $160 million in the second quarter of 2025, while the company’s overall revenue grew 45% to $989 million and profits of $386 million.As a pillar of retail-oriented stock trading, Robinhood’s adoption of blockchain technology highlights the shift to mainstream, regulated infrastructure.Similarly, late-stage transactions, such as the $400 million financing from Mantle in the second quarter of 2025 for RWA tokenization, and the $185 million financing from Kalshi at a $2 billion valuation for forecasting markets, highlight the focus on revenue-oriented, regulatory-compliant models.
These moves reflect the cryptocurrency industry’s focus on working with traditional financial institutions rather than just chasing speculative opportunities.
Encrypted macro intersection
Cryptocurrencies no longer exist in isolation, and are integrating with today’s cutting-edge technologies and global finance.In the field of artificial intelligence, OpenMind’s OM1 + FABRIC architecture solves the “missing layer” problem in the robot industry, allowing different robots to work together through a decentralized approach.Worldcoin’s iris scanning authentication system utilizes a blockchain-based identity layer to enable AI Agent to authenticate and trade independently, solving the key problems of secure interaction in cryptocurrencies.Decentralized AI platforms like Sahara AI, a decentralized alternative to Scale AI, and Sentient (decentralized Hugging Face) are disrupting traditional AI infrastructure.The application layer of cryptocurrency artificial intelligence is still in a very early stage, but the potential it contains may create a completely new market structure through on-chain proxy and trading systems, thereby enabling high-frequency trading of tokenized stocks.
In the payment field, stablecoins, especially Circle’s USDC, have become an integral part of the global payment system, and the introduction of the GENIUS Act has further accelerated the adoption of USDC.Circle reported that its revenue grew 58.6% in the first quarter of 2025 to $579 million.Analysts expect stablecoins to trade daily at $250 billion in three years, and if the growth momentum continues, it may even surpass traditional payment systems like Visa in the next decade.Companies such as PayPal and Visa are exploring the integration of stablecoins to integrate stablecoins into mainstream payment channels.The cooperation between Robinhood and Arbitrum allows Robinhood users to directly trade USDC on Arbitrum, making stablecoin trading more convenient for ordinary users.The collaboration with Robinhood is just the tip of the iceberg, and Arbitrum plays a key role in expanding stablecoin adoption and reflects how the Layer2 solution connects cryptocurrencies with traditional finance.
These most critical industries meet here, bringing together experts from the fields of artificial intelligence, financial technology and consumer technology, blurring the boundaries of the industry.As the pillar of the decentralized system, cryptocurrencies are positioning themselves as a key layer in the global technological architecture.
Looking to the future
We expect stronger market cycles in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.An unprecedented regulatory clarity, expected rate cuts, and large capital inflows from strategic mergers and acquisitions and IPOs have jointly built a solid foundation.This new momentum driven by focusing on practical applications has laid the foundation for an accelerated growth period.Our strategy is to take advantage of this opportunity to invest in a concentrated and highly confident Series A-companies that are expected to define their field.
The U.S. IPO market has soared to 224 times so far this year.In the first half of 2024, there were 94 IPOs, compared with 165 in the first half of 2025, an increase of 76%.There were 185 cryptocurrency-related transactions in the first half of 2025 alone, and are expected to exceed 248 acquisitions in 2024.High-profile companies like Circle and traditional financial giants’ acquisition of cryptocurrency companies mark the strong momentum of the upcoming cycle.
The convergence of cryptocurrencies with artificial intelligence, payments and infrastructure, coupled with the positive regulatory benefits and investor enthusiasm, will drive us into an era of accelerated growth.Against this backdrop, we will continue to consolidate the pillar position of cryptocurrencies in the global financial and technology sectors.
