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According to the holding data tracked by WalletPilot,If the current net inflow rate remains unchanged, Bitcoin spot ETF is expected to hold more than 1.5 million BTC by the end of the year.This position will exceed most estimated lost bitcoin (about 1.4 million BTC).
As of August 13, the US Bitcoin spot ETF held a total of approximately 1.296 million BTC, equivalent to nearly 6.5% of the circulating supply.In the past 30 days, all funds have net increase in holdings of approximately 17,393 BTC.If this speed continues, the total ETF holdings will exceed 1.5 million by December.
BlackRock’s IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) accounts for the highest proportion of its holdings, managing about 744,500 BTC.Since the fund was launched in January 2024, this position has accounted for about 3.3% of the total Bitcoin supply.
In recent months, IBIT has increased its holdings by about 4,300 BTC per month.If the capital flow remains stable, IBIT alone may add about 130,000 new BTC to its reserves by the end of the year, further aggravating the concentration of holdings of a single issuer.
While ETFs increased their holdings, Bitcoin price also climbed to an all-time high of around $124,000, a level that was closely related to market expectations that the Fed would start to cut interest rates later this year.
These funds have attracted more than $50 billion in asset management (AUM) in more than a year..Its stable net inflow rate has exceeded the new issuance of Bitcoin mining (after the halving in April 2024, the daily issuance volume is about 450 BTC), resulting in the continuous tightening of available circulating shares in the secondary market.
Under the current monthly average, if capital inflows remain stable, the cumulative ETF holdings will add about 70,000 BTC by the end of the year.For example, if capital inflows accelerate and monthly increase in holdings doubled to about 34,000 Bitcoins, the ETF reserves may exceed 1.6 million BTC.
Such scenarios will deepen the impact on tradable supply, which may increase the sensitivity of prices to macroeconomic dynamics and fund flows of specific investors in the fund.
The concentration of holdings in the hands of a few funds has also had an impact on the market structure.Since most shareholders cannot directly redeem the underlying Bitcoin with ETF shares, even if the ETF secondary market share changes hands, the actual liquidity of the exchange may still be limited.As the proportion of ETF demand in total trading volume increases, this dynamic may affect the price discovery process.
Although net inflows have remained stable in recent months, there is no guarantee that this rate will continue.If the macro environment changes, or higher prices trigger more profit settlements, net inflows may slow down or even reverse.In addition, regulatory dynamics (such as adjustments to the ETF redemption mechanism or large-scale revisions of the Securities Law) are still variables that may affect trends.
The next four months will determine whether spot ETFs can exceed the 1.5 million BTC holding threshold.At current speed, this milestone seems to be within reach, also adds a new dimension to the interaction between institutional products and the supply of underlying digital assets.
