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Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise; Compiled by: 0xjs@Bitlink Vision
There is nothing to say about the November 5 election.
If you missed my previous comment, my predictions are as follows:
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In the short term, Trump’s victory is better than Harris’ victory.
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In the long run, Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoins will all flourish regardless of who wins.
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Under the Harris regime, altcoins face greater regulatory risks than under the Trump regime.
The only “bad” result for cryptocurrencies is a big victory for the Democratic Party, as it will encourage marginalists in the Democratic Party who are openly opposed to cryptocurrencies.
But even in this case, I will buy it at a low price.
Because if you say that the past four years have taught me anything, it is: Washington cannot stop cryptocurrencies.It can change the trajectory.It can speed up or slow down the process.It can bring more confusion or new clarity.
But it can’t stop it.
Cryptocurrency status: November 2020 Vs November 2024
I don’t have much love for the presidential election, and one of them is that it gives you the opportunity to look back at what has happened in the past four years.
Is the situation better or worse than the last vote in 2020?
When you do this in the cryptocurrency space, the results will be overwhelming.Despite the hostile circumstances of regulation – think of Operation Chatter 2.0, numerous SEC lawsuits and a large number of conflicting or ambiguous statements – the progress we have made is amazing.
Choose any statistic you want, and that’s true.
Cryptocurrency Progress: 2020 vs. 2024
Source: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana price data provided by Bitwise Asset Management as of November 2, 2020 and November 2, 2024.CME Bitcoin Futures Open, DEX volume and monthly trading volume (Bitcoin Network) comes from The Block, using full-month values for October 2020 and October 2024.As of November 6, 2020 and November 3, 2024, the Block provides daily cryptocurrency trading volume (7DMA).As of November 2, 2020 and November 2, 2024, Bitcoin spot ETF AUM and stablecoin AUM are available by The Block.DeFi TVL from The Block as of November 4, 2020 and November 2, 2024.As of October 2020 and October 2024, the Block and GrowThePie provide monthly transaction volume (Ethereum + Tier 2).As of November 2, 2024, RWA.XYZ owns the top 20 asset managers in tokenized funds.All other data as of 11/4/24 are from Bitwise Asset Management.
In the cryptocurrency space, we pay too much attention to instant price movements that often ignore long-term trends.The presidential election provides us with a great opportunity to look back and see how far we have come.
Will these trends continue?
When you see the above statistics, you should ask yourself a question: Will this trend continue?In my opinion, the answer is yes.
Our view is, no matter who wins Election Day, November 5:
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Spot encryption ETF capital inflows will continue
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Stablecoins will continue to grow rapidly
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Institutions will continue to “leave zero interest rates” and increase allocation to cryptocurrencies
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Wall Street will continue to embrace tokenization and real-world assets
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Blockchain will become faster and cheaper
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Real-world applications like Polymarket will continue to make breakthroughs and gain mainstream adoption
There is no doubt that the outcome of the November 5 election is important, especially in the short term.But in my opinion, the November 5 election results will be between speed bumps and strong winds in the long run.
Neither of them could stop the train from moving forward.
